Good news in the polls

Richard Baehr
The Obama lead over Romney in Oregon now is 4 points.  It was much bigger two months back. Hopeful sign: in the governor's race in Oregon in 2010, it was a virtual tie. Oregon is really two states: very liberal from Portland all the way down the Willamette Valley, very conservative to the east.

A very encouraging first poll on Wisconsin from Rasmussen: Walker up 5. I think there are very few swing voters to be reached by ads or attack ads next three weeks. People know where they stand. I was skeptical that Romney could challenge in Wisconsin, but now think I was wrong.  Another good sign on Wisconsin: in the open Senate seat of retiring Democrat Herb Kohl, the GOP candidate leads by 12%.

Rasmussen is showing better numbers for the GOP in many cases so far. May be due to likely voter screen, or absence of cell phone, or both.

The more blue states that are added to the battle, even if Romney does not win them, the better his chances to win.  In 2004, Kerry needed to win both Ohio and Pennsylvania. Bush made major effort in Pennsylvania, and held Kerry to 2% win. Bush held on in Ohio by 2%.  Kerry may have spent as much or more on defending Pennsylvania than Ohio. That was in days of public financing of course.

The Obama lead over Romney in Oregon now is 4 points.  It was much bigger two months back. Hopeful sign: in the governor's race in Oregon in 2010, it was a virtual tie. Oregon is really two states: very liberal from Portland all the way down the Willamette Valley, very conservative to the east.

A very encouraging first poll on Wisconsin from Rasmussen: Walker up 5. I think there are very few swing voters to be reached by ads or attack ads next three weeks. People know where they stand. I was skeptical that Romney could challenge in Wisconsin, but now think I was wrong.  Another good sign on Wisconsin: in the open Senate seat of retiring Democrat Herb Kohl, the GOP candidate leads by 12%.

Rasmussen is showing better numbers for the GOP in many cases so far. May be due to likely voter screen, or absence of cell phone, or both.

The more blue states that are added to the battle, even if Romney does not win them, the better his chances to win.  In 2004, Kerry needed to win both Ohio and Pennsylvania. Bush made major effort in Pennsylvania, and held Kerry to 2% win. Bush held on in Ohio by 2%.  Kerry may have spent as much or more on defending Pennsylvania than Ohio. That was in days of public financing of course.