March 17, 2012
If Gingrich dropped out, who would his voters support?
This came as a surprise to me since previous surveys on the subject show Santorum getting the lion's share of Newt supporters if he dropped out. Gallup's latest survey on the subject shows that Newt supporters would break nearly 50-50 for the other two candidates: Some conservative Republicans have called for Gingrich to drop out of the race on the assumption that conservative primary voters would then unite behind Santorum as the conservative alternative to the more moderate Romney. But Gallup data indicate that Gingrich voters would not be likely to coalesce behind Santorum, suggesting that factors other than candidate ideology may be attracting voters to Gingrich, Santorum, and Romney. Gallup can simulate Republican preferences without Gingrich in the race by removing Gingrich votes and reassigning them to his voters' second-choice candidate. The results of this procedure suggest that national GOP preferences would change little if Gingrich dropped out. The reconfigured...(Read Full Post)