Election forecast: Michigan and Arizona

Mitt Romney has improved his chances of winning Michigan while he maintains a commanding lead in Arizona. Both primaries are scheduled for Tuesday. Nate Silver: A new Rasmussen Reports poll of Michigan gives Mr. Romney a six-point lead there, 40 percent to 34 percent. The poll, conducted after Wednesday night's debate, represents a reversal from Rasmussen's previous survey of the state, which had Mr. Santorum up by four points instead. Mr. Romney also holds the lead in a second poll, from Mitchell Research and Rosetta Stone, which like the Rasmussen survey was conducted on Thursday after the debate. There is less in the way of momentum for Mr. Romney in this survey - he held a two-point lead in a poll conducted by the same firm earlier this week and has a three-point lead now - but it gives him an advantage nevertheless. The FiveThirtyEight forecast model now projects a win for Mr. Romney by about four points in Michigan, roughly bisecting the Rasmussen Reports and Mitchell...(Read Full Post)