I'm a little late, but it is still January. So here are my predictions for 2012. You can score me next January.
- Romney will win the Republican nomination.
- Obama will win the general election.
- Romney's loss will be blamed on his choice of Vice President.
- Joe Biden will continue to be the Vice President (although I think there is a 20% chance that his doctor will "discover" some medical condition and he will drop from the race, to be replaced with Hillary Clinton).
- Republicans will retain the House 236-220.
- The Senate will end up tied at 50-50, with the deciding vote going to Biden.
- The Supreme Court will uphold the individual mandate of ObamaCare.
- The unemployment rate by the end of the year will be 8.6%.
- Real GDP growth for the year will be 1.9%.
- The Dow will close 2012 at 13,000.
- The debt ceiling will be raised another $1.2 trillion, with neither fuss nor muss.
- Obama will not approve the Keystone pipeline. (If he does, it will not be at the "two month deadline", but shortly before the general election.)
- The deficit for FY 2012 will be $1.3 trillion.
- At the end of the year, no one will know for sure whether Iran has the bomb, although some analysts will believe that it does.
- Israel will not conduct a military raid on Iran, or any other country.
- The number of troops left in Afghanistan at the end of the year will be 80,000, and on track to be totally out in 2014.
My predictions are based on this general rule: everything I want to happen will not happen, and vice versa. Conservatives will neither win nor be vindicated.
Randall Hoven can be followed on Twitter. His bio and previous writings can be found at randallhoven.com.