That's why it is liable to get very nasty in the Palmetto State. The narrative isn't set in stone yet, but the concrete is drying and there is precious little time to derail the Romney train. Nate Silver: The forecasts had Mr. Romney with 32 percent of the vote in South Carolina, Newt Gingrich with 24 percent and Rick Santorum with 20 percent. That didn't appear to be all that safe a lead for Mr. Romney, and the model gave him only a 55 percent chance of winning. However, these results will probably be affected by what happened in New Hampshire. The best empirical way to estimate the "bounce" a candidate will get out of a state is to look at how he performed relative to his polls. Mr. Romney got 39 percent of the vote in New Hampshire, which almost exactly matched his polling-based forecasts. So he is unlikely to get much of a bounce for having exceeded expectations. But bounces aren't entirely relative; absolute performance can matter, too, especially if candidates get favorable...(Read Full Post)