If you're into the nuts and bolts of politics, you will probably enjoy liberal pollster Nate Silver's take on the 2012 presidential race.
If not, here are the money grafs:
Obama does indeed have a "Jewish problem." Polls find that his standing among Jews has deteriorated: only about 54 percent of them approved of his performance in the most recent Gallup survey. But this is to be expected when a president has a 40-something approval rating. He also has a Hispanic problem and a problem among the white working class. He has a problem in Ohio and a problem in Florida and a problem in New Hampshire. He even has, to a mild extent, an African-American problem: Obama's approval ratings among black voters are still high, but down to about 80 percent from 90 percent.
All of these, however, are symptoms of Obama's larger problems, a set of three fundamental misgivings shared by much of the American electorate.
• First, many of us understand that Barack Obama inherited a terrible predicament. We have a degree of sympathy for the man. But we have concerns, which have been growing over time, about whether he's up to the job.
• Second, most of us are gravely concerned about the economy. We're not certain what should be done about it, but we're frustrated.
• Third, enough of us are prepared to vote against Obama that he could easily lose. It doesn't mean we will, but we might if the Republican represents a credible alternative and fits within the broad political mainstream.
Each of these factors, in turn, can be quantified.
• The first factor, Americans' performance reviews of Obama, can be measured through his approval ratings.
• The second factor, economic performance, can be measured through statistics like G.D.P.
• The third factor - essentially, the ideological positioning of the Republican candidate - is sometimes thought of as an "intangible." But it can be measured too, and it matters a great deal.
The bottom line is that Obama is vulnerable but predictions regarding his demise may be a little exaggerated.
Hat Tip: Ed Lasky