Yes, but fear not - things are supposed to be looking up in the second half of 2012. Cue Judy Garland: "Somewhere Over the Rainbow..." Reuters: While it is difficult to gauge the odds precisely, an analysis of leading U.S. economic indicators suggests a rising chance of a recession through the end of the year and into early next year, researchers at the regional Fed bank wrote on Monday. The risk of recession recedes after the second half of 2012, they found. New governments in Greece and Italy, with fresh promises to tackle fiscal problems have in recent days, allayed investor concerns about a near-term sovereign debt default in the euro zone, but Europe's debt crisis is far from resolved. The region is facing its worst hour since World War II, German Chancellor Angela Merkel said on Monday. Although domestic threats to economic growth in the United States are limited, a shock from abroad could derail a fragile recovery. The weak U.S. economy is more than usually vulnerable to...(Read Full Post)