Is the "Arab Spring" going to turn into an "Islamist winter?"
Recent revolutions in the Arab world and the deteriorating ties with Turkey are raising the likelihood of a regional war in the Middle East, IDF Home Front Command Chief, Major General Eyal Eisenberg warned Monday.
"It looks like the Arab Spring, but it can also be a radical Islamic winter," he said in a speech at the Institute for National Security Studies in Tel Aviv.
"This leads us to the conclusion that through a long-term process, the likelihood of an all-out war is increasingly growing," the IDF general said.
"Iran has not abandoned its nuclear program. The opposite it true; it continues full steam ahead," he said. "In Egypt, the army is collapsing under the burden of regular security operations, and this is reflected in the loss of control in the Sinai and the turning of the border with Israel into a terror border, with the possibility that Sinai will fall under the control of an Islamic entity."
Not mentioned is the instability next door in Syria. If Assad is on the way out, who replaces him? Recall that Syria has gigantic stocks of chemical weapons. Falling into the wrong hands, those weapons would constitute a huge threat to Israeli civilians, not to mention complicating the Israeli strategic position considerably.
It is Egypt, however, that is the immediate problem and could be the primer that ignites the whole region. Israel must assume the worst regarding who comes to power in elections later this year and considering recent events, the prospects for peace have been dimmed.
The US - without influence or a leader - is hamstrung in any case. This presents some truly frightening scenarios with threats to Israel multiplying and little restraint shown by states under the control of radicals.