Why Obama won't be challenged in his own party

Despite being wildly unpopular, Obama would still do better than any Democratic rival who challenged him in the primaries. That conclusion by Nate Silver jibes with history; ditching an incumbent president leads nowhere: The evidence, if anything, points in the opposite direction: Mr. Obama is more popular than his policies, and probably gives the Democrats a better chance of maintaining the White House than another Democrat would. Three pieces of data to consider: First, Mr. Obama's personal favorability ratings - which continue to average about 50 percent - are considerably higher than his approval ratings, which are now around 40 percent. It's not uncommon for favorability ratings to track a point or two ahead of approval ratings - but this is a particularly large gap. Voters remain reasonably sympathetic to Barack Obama, the person, even if they're growing less and less thrilled with his performance. Can Mr. Obama use that sympathy to persuade hesitant voters to give him another...(Read Full Post)