Who, or what will replace Qaddaffi

Ethel C. Fenig

Astute mideast Muslim analyst, Daniel Pipes, explains why he's not joining in the general celebrations over the seemingly imminent demise of the 42 year old brutal Qaddafi era.   

"The NATO intervention in March 2011 was done without due diligence as to who it was in Benghazi that it was helping. To this day, their identity is a mystery. Chances are good that Islamist forces are hiding behind more benign elements, waiting for the right moment to pounce, as roughly happened in Iran in 1978-79, when Islamists did not make clear their strength nor their program until the shah was well disposed of. Should that be the case in Libya today, then the miserable Qaddafi will prove to be better than his successors for both the Libyan subjects of tyranny and the West.

I hope I am wrong and the rebels are modern and liberal. But I fear that a dead-end despotism will be replaced by the agents of a worldwide ideological movement. I fear that Western forces will have brought civilization's worst enemies to power." 

Will one form of evil be replaced by a worse international one?  Pipes seems to think so.  The odds are high that his pessimism is justified.

There are those Egyptians who are already looking back nostalgically to the good old days of Mubarak.  For those who feel it is too early to judge the Egyptian regime change, study the aftermath of the now almost ancient history of the Iranian revolution over 30 years ago.  While not perfect, the Shah was certainly better for his country--and for the US also--than what the ayatollahs brought. 

If Qaddaffi is ultimately deposed, the price to rebuild Libya will be tremendous.  Not shown or mentioned in the euphoric news reports is the vast destruction from this bloody civil war; the many civilian dead and injured, the thousands displaced or refugees in neighboring countries, the infrastructure damage. 

And who will continue paying for this $896 million--so far--"kinetic military operation"  to bring Muslim law to Libya?  The revenues from Libya's oil?  Our mostly broke, now you see them, now you don't, NATO allies?  Hmmm.

 

Astute mideast Muslim analyst, Daniel Pipes, explains why he's not joining in the general celebrations over the seemingly imminent demise of the 42 year old brutal Qaddafi era.   

"The NATO intervention in March 2011 was done without due diligence as to who it was in Benghazi that it was helping. To this day, their identity is a mystery. Chances are good that Islamist forces are hiding behind more benign elements, waiting for the right moment to pounce, as roughly happened in Iran in 1978-79, when Islamists did not make clear their strength nor their program until the shah was well disposed of. Should that be the case in Libya today, then the miserable Qaddafi will prove to be better than his successors for both the Libyan subjects of tyranny and the West.

I hope I am wrong and the rebels are modern and liberal. But I fear that a dead-end despotism will be replaced by the agents of a worldwide ideological movement. I fear that Western forces will have brought civilization's worst enemies to power." 

Will one form of evil be replaced by a worse international one?  Pipes seems to think so.  The odds are high that his pessimism is justified.

There are those Egyptians who are already looking back nostalgically to the good old days of Mubarak.  For those who feel it is too early to judge the Egyptian regime change, study the aftermath of the now almost ancient history of the Iranian revolution over 30 years ago.  While not perfect, the Shah was certainly better for his country--and for the US also--than what the ayatollahs brought. 

If Qaddaffi is ultimately deposed, the price to rebuild Libya will be tremendous.  Not shown or mentioned in the euphoric news reports is the vast destruction from this bloody civil war; the many civilian dead and injured, the thousands displaced or refugees in neighboring countries, the infrastructure damage. 

And who will continue paying for this $896 million--so far--"kinetic military operation"  to bring Muslim law to Libya?  The revenues from Libya's oil?  Our mostly broke, now you see them, now you don't, NATO allies?  Hmmm.