New First - and Low for Obama

Like many politically active people, I avidly follow various political polls, checking at least one each day to ascertain where the weight of public opinion falls on the issues of the day, or the electability (or re-electability) of this or that candidate. But candidate polls, of course, serve two purposes:  to gauge current public opinion and also to predict the future, i.e., whether a particular candidate actually will win the relevant election. As useful and informative as polls may be, there is an arguably better predictor:  Intrade, the "political betting" Web site, where those who would opine on an upcoming election result must back their opinions with cash.  Because of this requirement to "put one's money where one's mouth is," many, including this writer consider Intrade an equally good, and arguably better, predictor of election results. So when Intrade speaks, this writer listens.  When polls show President Obama's approval consistently below 50%, when...(Read Full Post)