Michael Barone has a serious article today suggesting that the off year vote for the House is an excellent indicator of how the President election might turn out two years later.  GOP gains in 2002, signaled Bush's victory in 2004. Big Democratic gains in 2006 were spot on with 2008 results. In 2010, the GOP won 53% of the national vote for the U.S House, to 46% for the Democrats.   Barone has done the math, in anticipation of his new edition of the Almanac of American Politics, and also found that the GOP carried the overall House vote in 35 states in 2010.  Those 35 states account for 351 Electoral College votes in the 2012 elections.  The 15 states where the Democrats won the overall House vote in 2010 plus D. C, accounted for 187.  Barack Obama won 9 states that George Bush carried in 2004: Indiana, North Carolina, Virginia, Ohio, Florida, Iowa, Nevada, New Mexico, and Colorado.  He held all of the Kerry states from 2004.  In the 2010...(Read Full Post)