A new Sienna poll released on Saturday shows Democratic candidate Erie County Clerk Kathy Hochul up by 4 points over GOP State Assemblywoman Jane Corwin. The 42-38 lead by Hochul is within the margin of error making the race a virtual dead heat.
Gumming up the works is a fake tea party candidate Jack Davis who garners 12%. Davis has been exposed as someone who has supported Democrats in the past which makes his tea party credentials highly suspect.
National groups are pouring money into the race and the Democrats have apparently been successful in making Medicare the number one issue. CNN:
The sprawling Western New York district is reliably red - voting for Republicans in the last three presidential elections. But the Siena poll shows voters in the district say the most important issue to them is Medicare, over the budget deficit and jobs.Immediately after the House passed the House Republican budget in April that includes their proposal to dramatically change Medicare, House Democrats promised to make that vote an issue in the 2012 elections. The GOP plan converts the health care program for seniors from one that directly covers costs for care into one that provides subsidies to seniors to purchase health care coverage through private plans. It keeps the current system for those 55 and older, but for those 55 and younger, the structure of the Medicare program would significantly change.
Even though Corwin didn't personally vote for the proposal, Hochul's central message over the past several weeks is that her Republican opponent supports the plan. In the second and final debate between the Democrat and the Republican earlier this week, it seemed as though Hochul was running against the author of the GOP Medicare plan, House Republican Budget Chairman Paul Ryan, instead of Corwin.
Hochul told CNN in an interview, "Jane Corwin has 100 percent embraced the Paul Ryan budget. Even when Republicans in Washington are running away from it - she's been asked again and again, and she continues to support it."
If Corwin can turn the conversation back to the economy, she wins. Otherwise, the Democrats are giving a preview of how they will demogogue the Medicare issue in 2012 House races.
Frightening old people is always easier than coming up with a plan to solve the fiscal crisis and get Americans back to work.
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