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May 12, 2011 60% Obama Approval? My Ass--ociated PressObama sycophants in the media, which means most of the media, have been trumpeting an Associated Press poll that purports a 60% approval rating for Barack Obama. And if you believe that number, I have a compound in Abbottabad I'd like to sell you. The AP reached the 60% figure by lumping the majority of 'Undecideds' into the Obama approval column. Typically approval polls categorize respondents into three categories: Approve; Disapprove; and Undecided. Not the AP poll. If folks said they were undecided, the AP poll asked them which way they would lean. So, the AP's approval numbers include people who -- after flipping a coin, or channeling their dog Spot, or whatever -- said they would lean toward Approve. Incredibly, though, the AP poll also added even those who remained undecided after that second question into the Approval column. 11% of respondents told AP pollsters originally that they had no opinion on the Obama Approve/Disapprove question. After being pressed -- it's entirely likely that some folks gave the answer they thought would be politically correct -- 6% said they would lean favorable. Add those who still were undecided even after the follow-up question, and... Voila. Obama's approval number jumps from 55% to 60%. (Note: The vagaries of rounding will sometimes lead to slightly more, or slightly less, than 100% when totaling the poll's rounded guesses--, uh, results.) The Associated Press further spun the results in how it reported the poll. Here's the AP lede:
Let's look at the actual numbers. Only 1 in 3 people (32%) surveyed said they strongly approve of Obama's job performance. Up from his recent figures, but well below numbers earlier in his term. 23% said they somewhat approve of Obama's performance. Again, that's 55% approval, not 60%. And, as has been pointed out by Jim Geraghty at National Review and elsewhere, the poll was weighted to Democrat respondents by a 17% margin. The Associated Press also spun the poll's internals. They reported:
What the AP did not report: Only 38% of the respondents said the phrase, "He is a strong leader," describes Obama very well. The poll categorizes this sort of question into incremental categories. 62% told pollsters that the description fit Obama either not well at all, slightly well, or only somewhat well. The AP reported:
What the AP did not report: Their poll shows that, again, 38% say they are very confident in the Big O on the issue. The majority of respondents, 51%, say they are not confident at all, not too confident, or only somewhat confident. The AP reported:
What the AP did not report: It's still just that same stubborn 38% who told pollsters that the phrase "he will keep the country safe" described Obama very well. And Republicans retained a narrow 43-32% lead over Democrats on which party would more likely keep the nation safe. The AP reported:
What the AP did not report: Their actual numbers show that less than half, 49%, either strongly approve or somewhat approve on the issue. They reach the 52% number after asking Undecideds which way they lean, adding 3%. At least on this question, though, they did not include the remaining Undecideds (1%) in the Obama column. Even the AP admitted there were troubling results in their poll for Obama, pointing out that the Right Track/Wrong Track numbers show a majority of people think the country is headed in the wrong direction by a 52/45% margin. The AP does not point out, however, that an even bigger majority, 59%, said that Obama is only an average or below average president. Only 43% said they either strongly approve or somewhat approve of the way he is handling the budget deficit. On immigration, the figure was 47%; on taxes 45%. And on rising gas prices, even the AP could only put those approval figures at just 31%. Why come out with such a distorted poll now, and why has the media played it up? The Associated Press story admitted that Obama's post-Osama bump in the polls:
What is clear is that the media has also embarked on their 2012 campaign for Obama as well. William Tate is an award-winning journalist and author
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