Gaining three years?

In a Wikileaks cable from June 2009 Ehud Barak, Israel's defense minister, warned that the strike on Iran was viable until the end of 2010.

A 2009 American government cable released Sunday by the WikiLeaks website quotes Defense Minister Ehud Barak as telling visiting American officials that a strike on Iran's nuclear facilities was viable until the end of 2010, but after that "any military solution would result in unacceptable collateral damage."

The Jerusalem Post reports that Moshe Ya'alon, Israel's Deputy PM,told this to Israel Radio:

Iran does not have the capability to create a nuclear weapon at this point due to technological difficulties it has recently been facing, Deputy Prime Minister Moshe Ya'alon  told Israel Radio Wednesday morning.

Ya'alon estimated that Teheran will have the capability to create a nuclear bomb within the next three years.

Two ministers in the cabinet of the same Israeli government give a three year difference in the estimate of when Iran may get the bomb, albeit a year and a half elapsed between the two statements. How is this possible?  I see two possibilities:

  1. The Stuxnet worm (If it was Israel) had provided Israel with a complete panoramic and reliable picture of the Iranian nuclear program and had seriously damaged and delayed the program.  Israel could even wait to see Obama voted out of office.  
  2. The three year difference is a stratagem to put Iran and everybody else off guard. The attack on the nuclear sites may happen any time.
Which would you prefer?
In a Wikileaks cable from June 2009 Ehud Barak, Israel's defense minister, warned that the strike on Iran was viable until the end of 2010.

A 2009 American government cable released Sunday by the WikiLeaks website quotes Defense Minister Ehud Barak as telling visiting American officials that a strike on Iran's nuclear facilities was viable until the end of 2010, but after that "any military solution would result in unacceptable collateral damage."

The Jerusalem Post reports that Moshe Ya'alon, Israel's Deputy PM,told this to Israel Radio:

Iran does not have the capability to create a nuclear weapon at this point due to technological difficulties it has recently been facing, Deputy Prime Minister Moshe Ya'alon  told Israel Radio Wednesday morning.

Ya'alon estimated that Teheran will have the capability to create a nuclear bomb within the next three years.

Two ministers in the cabinet of the same Israeli government give a three year difference in the estimate of when Iran may get the bomb, albeit a year and a half elapsed between the two statements. How is this possible?  I see two possibilities:

  1. The Stuxnet worm (If it was Israel) had provided Israel with a complete panoramic and reliable picture of the Iranian nuclear program and had seriously damaged and delayed the program.  Israel could even wait to see Obama voted out of office.  
  2. The three year difference is a stratagem to put Iran and everybody else off guard. The attack on the nuclear sites may happen any time.
Which would you prefer?

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