Nate Silver has been reading the tea leaves and the Democratic pollster/analyst has found even more gloomy news for Obama.Here are 5 reasons the wave may be even bigger than pollsters are saying:1. Downballot and cross-ballot effects. Republicans are poised to win somewhere from 22 to 28 of the 37 United States Senate races on the ballot. There are also 37 races for governor; the picture there is a bit murkier, but Republicans will almost certainly win a clear majority, and could conceivably win as many as about 30.[...]2. Unlikely voters voted - and they voted Republican! Almost all pollsters apply likely voter models of some kind, which estimate how likely a respondent is to vote based on their degree of interest in the election, their voting history, and in some cases, their knowledge of things like where their polling place is. On average, these models show Republican candidates performing about 6 points ahead of their standing among all registered voters in these surveys.[...]3....(Read Full Post)