Election Live Blog #1

editor's note
 
Sean Trende from RCP: 

From Democratic polling firm PPP: ppppolls NC Legislature predictions: GOP will have 31-19 majority in Senate (+/-2) and a 67-53 majority in House (+/-4).



 Both houses now controlled by Democrats. This is  state that will likely pick up House seats after redistricting. Democrat Governor. C. Edmund Wright:
Early indications are great for conservatives so far.  Jack Conway in Kentucky is down in the mouth, urban areas are reducing voter totals and over all turn out is where Republicans need it.  In 2004, the Kerry Edwards Campaign was happy at 6:00 and they ended up crushed -- but they were counting on "exit polls" which were done by incompetent people in many cases.  Voter turn out is voter turn out. 

Richard Baehr:
From Drudge- first exit polling results: early calls for Johnson in Wisconsin, Portman in Ohio, Hoeven in North Dakota, Boozman in Arkansas. No surprises- but Johnson lead in exits over Feingold must be pretty decisive to get such an early call. Polls showed Johnson up 7. It might be bigger which could help GOP in two close House races - Wisconsin 7 and 8. 

EXIT POLLS:

Arkansas: Boozman (R) defeats Lincoln (D)
Ohio: Portman (R) defeats Fisher (D)

North Dakota: Hoeven (R) defeats Potter (D)
Wisconsin: Johnson (R) defeats Feingold (D)
 
Will Republicans Win the World Series?

G. Wesley Clark, MD

Yesterday, the San Francisco Giants won the World Series, and the media describe wild celebrations in the Bay Area, after a 56 year hiatus.  It's titillating to speculate that many Bay Area voters, overwhelmingly Democratic, will be faced today with a difficult decision:  whether to go the polls with a hangover, and whether to forego even a moment of the ongoing festivities, to take the time to vote. 

The result would likely be a depressed voter turnout in the Bay Area, affecting both parties in equal proportions (assuming Republicans and Democrats to have similar tolerance for the effects of alcohol), but due to the preponderance of Democrats there, shifting the overall balance of votes statewide toward the Republicans.  Could it be that the Giants will contribute to election of a new Republican Governor, and U.S. Senator?

I can't think of a way to confirm this conjecture, although a depressed voter turnout localized to the Bay Area would be suggestive.  Still, it's a pleasant excogitation.

Richard Baehr:
 
from nate silver: 

As I warned you, it's going to be some time before we get any sort of meaningful results from Indiana and Kentucky. The biggest potential surprise so far is in Indiana's 2nd district, where Jackie Walorski, the Republican, has a 1,500-vote lead so far on Joe Donnelly, but only 3 percent of precincts have reported. If Mr. Donnelly lost, especially by a significant margin, that would be a bad sign for the Democrats.

This would be a big one if it holds- Silver predicted a win for Donnelly (Indiana 2). It is the toughest of the 3 possible pick ups in iIndiana- Indiana 8 is considered a lock for the GOP,and Indiana 9,Republican is favored in a close race.

 
Tom Roberson

While there will be few surprises since it's solidly Republican, the real race to watch in Louisiana tonight is between RINO Secretary of State Jay Dardenne and New Orleans Democrat Carolyn Fayard for lieutenant governor. Many voters will be looking to send a message to Dardenne by voting for Fayard, figuring that lieutenant governor is not that important. Rumor has it that Bobby Jindal will be looking to leave office soon if Fayard wins.

Republican senator David Vitter will coast to victory over Democrat Charlie Melancon, and should get at least 60% of the vote.



Thomas Lifson:

Fox News projects Rand Paul the winner. Because there's something abut an Aqua Buddha Man, I guess. 

Jim DeMint is also declared a winner. Sorry Alvin Greene, your 15 minutes are up.

 
C. Edmund Wright:

I have to take delight that arrogant Jack Conway is the first Democrat to bite the dust accordiung to the media. The story was about Rand Paul, but it's too bad the nation did not get to see more of Conway.  He is the consumate cocky sound byte empty suit machine.  And he is done. 

 
Tom Roberson

Indiana Returns

In a good sign, Indiana returns continue to show Republicans leading every race by comfortable margins. Todd Young leads Baron Hill in IN-09, which contains Indiana University, considered the Berkley of the Midwest. This is devastating to Democrats.

 
C. Edmund Wright:

Suicide Alert: Watch the MSNBC crew as we go through the night:  That crew, anchored by Keith Olbermann, is already going off the deep end. First, an obviously bitter Lawrence O'Donnell was lecturing Rand Paul on how limited his legislative success will be in Washington -- and then Chuck Todd shows how the Democrats might actually save the House with a bunch of conservative third party candidates gumming up the works.  It will be fun to watch them as the night progresses.

 
Richard Baehr
 
Sean Trende from RCP: 

From Democratic polling firm PPP: ppppolls NC Legislature predictions: GOP will have 31-19 majority in Senate (+/-2) and a 67-53 majority in House (+/-4).
 Both houses now controlled by Democrats. This is  state that will likely pick up House seats after redistricting. Democrat Governor. 

All 3 Republicans ahead in Indiana pickup  races- 2, 8, and 9. But it looks like Dems will hold Kentucky 6 (Chandler)
 
We are not winning the senate. With California and West Virginia gone, the best we can do is 50-50 if we win washington, and nevada looks very hairy. We could be at 48 at end of night.


Tom Roberson

Florida returns show Allen West winning in FL-22, while Alan Grayson is getting stomped by Daniel Webster in FL-08. Marco Rubio is called as the Senate winner, while Rick Scott is leading Alex Sink for Florida governor.

Republican Senate Wins: Dan Coats - IN, Rand Paul - KY, Kelly Ayotte - NH, Marco Rubio - FL, Rob Portman - OH, Roy Blunt - MO, Jim DeMint - SC.

 
C. Edmund Wright

I have not seen where West Virginia is gone yet -- although this was a point of consternation for me.  If Manchin wins, he will be our reverse McCain.  He has actually campaigned much more conservatively than McCain did. 
 
Awful night for Dems in Florida shaping up.  Rubio looks to get 50% give or take in the three way race.  Meanwhile Scott appears to be pulling away from Sink in the Florida Governors' race also. Meanwhile, the liberals on Fox are hanging their hats on Connecticut and Delaware.  


Tom Roberson

In Indiana, Todd Young continues to lead Baron Hill in IN-09, while Marlin Stutzman picks up a Republican win in IN-03.

Virginia is showing Republican leads in four House races against Democrat incumbents. Wins in Districts 2, 5, 9, and 11 would be pickups for Republicans.


Ed Lasky

Heath Shuler is running behind the Dem Candidate Jeff Miller-granted less than 4% counted but still-that is a surprise.

Fox News keeps saying the race between Kirk and Alexi G for Obama's old Senate is too close to call


J.R. Dunn
 
To anybody with doubts as to how this election will go: this weekend a North Carolina House candidate named Randy Wolfe was picked up for drunk drving not once but twice, both Saturday and Sunday, with a blood alcohol conent of over .20. No party affiliation was mentioned in the legacy media story, which set me to thinkin'. Nor did his website contain any party info. But it did mention he was an ex-CBS producer, another clue. Finally, I at last confirmed that he was Dem, as suspected.

So we've got closet Democrats driving around drunk as a rat in a brewery all weekend long before the election.
No, playmates -- we ain't in 2008 anymore.


Ed Lasky
 
Barack Obama went out of the way to campaign for freshman Congressman Tom Perriello who has followed the Obama-Pelosi program down the line. He was always highly vulnerable and basically won in 2008 because of the help of University of Virginia students. They apparently did not come out for him this time around-indicating the young have abandoned Obama.
He has reached the end of the line. Obama personally campaigning for him the last week was a tell.


Jeffrey Folks

Good news from conservative Tennessee. Bill Haslam (R) is trouncing Mike McWherter (D), son of the former governor. Meanwhile, in an important congressional election, Pelosi lapdog Lincoln Davis is losing to political novice Scott DesJarlais (R) by an 8 to 5 margin. It looks like the Tennessee congressional delegation may swing from 5 to 4 Democrat to 6 to 3 GOP. Another good sign: next door in North Carolina, lapdog Heath Shuler is losing as well.


Ed Lasky

The reason Fox News is reporting a too close to call Ill Senate Race: No precincts have reported yet-bad of Fox News to mislead.

Fox pointing out Manchin win is less than meets the eye for Democrats-only for two years and will likely vote with GOP on various issues.


 
Sean Trende from RCP: 

From Democratic polling firm PPP: ppppolls NC Legislature predictions: GOP will have 31-19 majority in Senate (+/-2) and a 67-53 majority in House (+/-4).



 Both houses now controlled by Democrats. This is  state that will likely pick up House seats after redistricting. Democrat Governor. C. Edmund Wright:
Early indications are great for conservatives so far.  Jack Conway in Kentucky is down in the mouth, urban areas are reducing voter totals and over all turn out is where Republicans need it.  In 2004, the Kerry Edwards Campaign was happy at 6:00 and they ended up crushed -- but they were counting on "exit polls" which were done by incompetent people in many cases.  Voter turn out is voter turn out. 

Richard Baehr:
From Drudge- first exit polling results: early calls for Johnson in Wisconsin, Portman in Ohio, Hoeven in North Dakota, Boozman in Arkansas. No surprises- but Johnson lead in exits over Feingold must be pretty decisive to get such an early call. Polls showed Johnson up 7. It might be bigger which could help GOP in two close House races - Wisconsin 7 and 8. 

EXIT POLLS:

Arkansas: Boozman (R) defeats Lincoln (D)
Ohio: Portman (R) defeats Fisher (D)

North Dakota: Hoeven (R) defeats Potter (D)
Wisconsin: Johnson (R) defeats Feingold (D)
 
Will Republicans Win the World Series?

G. Wesley Clark, MD

Yesterday, the San Francisco Giants won the World Series, and the media describe wild celebrations in the Bay Area, after a 56 year hiatus.  It's titillating to speculate that many Bay Area voters, overwhelmingly Democratic, will be faced today with a difficult decision:  whether to go the polls with a hangover, and whether to forego even a moment of the ongoing festivities, to take the time to vote. 

The result would likely be a depressed voter turnout in the Bay Area, affecting both parties in equal proportions (assuming Republicans and Democrats to have similar tolerance for the effects of alcohol), but due to the preponderance of Democrats there, shifting the overall balance of votes statewide toward the Republicans.  Could it be that the Giants will contribute to election of a new Republican Governor, and U.S. Senator?

I can't think of a way to confirm this conjecture, although a depressed voter turnout localized to the Bay Area would be suggestive.  Still, it's a pleasant excogitation.

Richard Baehr:
 
from nate silver: 

As I warned you, it's going to be some time before we get any sort of meaningful results from Indiana and Kentucky. The biggest potential surprise so far is in Indiana's 2nd district, where Jackie Walorski, the Republican, has a 1,500-vote lead so far on Joe Donnelly, but only 3 percent of precincts have reported. If Mr. Donnelly lost, especially by a significant margin, that would be a bad sign for the Democrats.

This would be a big one if it holds- Silver predicted a win for Donnelly (Indiana 2). It is the toughest of the 3 possible pick ups in iIndiana- Indiana 8 is considered a lock for the GOP,and Indiana 9,Republican is favored in a close race.

 
Tom Roberson

While there will be few surprises since it's solidly Republican, the real race to watch in Louisiana tonight is between RINO Secretary of State Jay Dardenne and New Orleans Democrat Carolyn Fayard for lieutenant governor. Many voters will be looking to send a message to Dardenne by voting for Fayard, figuring that lieutenant governor is not that important. Rumor has it that Bobby Jindal will be looking to leave office soon if Fayard wins.

Republican senator David Vitter will coast to victory over Democrat Charlie Melancon, and should get at least 60% of the vote.



Thomas Lifson:

Fox News projects Rand Paul the winner. Because there's something abut an Aqua Buddha Man, I guess. 

Jim DeMint is also declared a winner. Sorry Alvin Greene, your 15 minutes are up.

 
C. Edmund Wright:

I have to take delight that arrogant Jack Conway is the first Democrat to bite the dust accordiung to the media. The story was about Rand Paul, but it's too bad the nation did not get to see more of Conway.  He is the consumate cocky sound byte empty suit machine.  And he is done. 

 
Tom Roberson

Indiana Returns

In a good sign, Indiana returns continue to show Republicans leading every race by comfortable margins. Todd Young leads Baron Hill in IN-09, which contains Indiana University, considered the Berkley of the Midwest. This is devastating to Democrats.

 
C. Edmund Wright:

Suicide Alert: Watch the MSNBC crew as we go through the night:  That crew, anchored by Keith Olbermann, is already going off the deep end. First, an obviously bitter Lawrence O'Donnell was lecturing Rand Paul on how limited his legislative success will be in Washington -- and then Chuck Todd shows how the Democrats might actually save the House with a bunch of conservative third party candidates gumming up the works.  It will be fun to watch them as the night progresses.

 
Richard Baehr
 
Sean Trende from RCP: 

From Democratic polling firm PPP: ppppolls NC Legislature predictions: GOP will have 31-19 majority in Senate (+/-2) and a 67-53 majority in House (+/-4).
 Both houses now controlled by Democrats. This is  state that will likely pick up House seats after redistricting. Democrat Governor. 

All 3 Republicans ahead in Indiana pickup  races- 2, 8, and 9. But it looks like Dems will hold Kentucky 6 (Chandler)
 
We are not winning the senate. With California and West Virginia gone, the best we can do is 50-50 if we win washington, and nevada looks very hairy. We could be at 48 at end of night.


Tom Roberson

Florida returns show Allen West winning in FL-22, while Alan Grayson is getting stomped by Daniel Webster in FL-08. Marco Rubio is called as the Senate winner, while Rick Scott is leading Alex Sink for Florida governor.

Republican Senate Wins: Dan Coats - IN, Rand Paul - KY, Kelly Ayotte - NH, Marco Rubio - FL, Rob Portman - OH, Roy Blunt - MO, Jim DeMint - SC.

 
C. Edmund Wright

I have not seen where West Virginia is gone yet -- although this was a point of consternation for me.  If Manchin wins, he will be our reverse McCain.  He has actually campaigned much more conservatively than McCain did. 
 
Awful night for Dems in Florida shaping up.  Rubio looks to get 50% give or take in the three way race.  Meanwhile Scott appears to be pulling away from Sink in the Florida Governors' race also. Meanwhile, the liberals on Fox are hanging their hats on Connecticut and Delaware.  


Tom Roberson

In Indiana, Todd Young continues to lead Baron Hill in IN-09, while Marlin Stutzman picks up a Republican win in IN-03.

Virginia is showing Republican leads in four House races against Democrat incumbents. Wins in Districts 2, 5, 9, and 11 would be pickups for Republicans.


Ed Lasky

Heath Shuler is running behind the Dem Candidate Jeff Miller-granted less than 4% counted but still-that is a surprise.

Fox News keeps saying the race between Kirk and Alexi G for Obama's old Senate is too close to call


J.R. Dunn
 
To anybody with doubts as to how this election will go: this weekend a North Carolina House candidate named Randy Wolfe was picked up for drunk drving not once but twice, both Saturday and Sunday, with a blood alcohol conent of over .20. No party affiliation was mentioned in the legacy media story, which set me to thinkin'. Nor did his website contain any party info. But it did mention he was an ex-CBS producer, another clue. Finally, I at last confirmed that he was Dem, as suspected.

So we've got closet Democrats driving around drunk as a rat in a brewery all weekend long before the election.
No, playmates -- we ain't in 2008 anymore.


Ed Lasky
 
Barack Obama went out of the way to campaign for freshman Congressman Tom Perriello who has followed the Obama-Pelosi program down the line. He was always highly vulnerable and basically won in 2008 because of the help of University of Virginia students. They apparently did not come out for him this time around-indicating the young have abandoned Obama.
He has reached the end of the line. Obama personally campaigning for him the last week was a tell.


Jeffrey Folks

Good news from conservative Tennessee. Bill Haslam (R) is trouncing Mike McWherter (D), son of the former governor. Meanwhile, in an important congressional election, Pelosi lapdog Lincoln Davis is losing to political novice Scott DesJarlais (R) by an 8 to 5 margin. It looks like the Tennessee congressional delegation may swing from 5 to 4 Democrat to 6 to 3 GOP. Another good sign: next door in North Carolina, lapdog Heath Shuler is losing as well.


Ed Lasky

The reason Fox News is reporting a too close to call Ill Senate Race: No precincts have reported yet-bad of Fox News to mislead.

Fox pointing out Manchin win is less than meets the eye for Democrats-only for two years and will likely vote with GOP on various issues.