This is slightly higher than the consensus among other pollsters but is certainly in the ballpark as far as where the races stand right now.
Nationally-recognized pollster Scott Rasmussen last night predicted that Republicans would gain 55 seats in races for the U.S. House of Representatives November 2-much more than the 39 needed for a Republican majority in the House for the first time since 2006.
But the man whose Rasmussen Reports polling is watched carefully by politicians and frequently quoted by the punditocracy said that whether Republicans gain the ten seats they need to take control of the Senate is in question.
"Republicans should have 48 seats [after the elections next month], Democrats 47, and five seats could slide either way," said Rasmussen in his banquet address at the Western Conservative Political Action Conference. He was referring to seats in five states in which the Senate race this year he considers too close to call: California, Illinois, Washington, West Virginia, and Nevada (or "that mudwrestling contest," as Rasmussen described the race between Republican Sharron Angle and Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid).
The money race is also going to the GOP by a lopsided margin:
The long roster of House Democrats who were outraised by their GOP opponents - a list that totals at least 40 - is just the latest indication that cash is following GOP momentum just weeks before voters head to the polls.
Those who took less included vulnerable freshman who have been on the ropes for much of the last two years like Pennsylvania Rep. Kathy Dahlkemper, Nevada Rep. Dina Titus, and New Mexico Rep. Harry Teague.
But even Democrats in powerful senior committee posts who are usually able to dip into large infusions of cash were outmatched. National Resources Committee Chairman Nick Rahall of West Virginia, Armed Services Committee Chairman Ike Skelton of Missouri, and Paul Kanjorski of Pennsylvania, a senior member on the House Financial Services Committee, all raised less.
With a collection of GOP-friendly outside groups - including the Karl Rove-linked American Crossroads - already set to unleash a $50 million ad campaign and the National Republican Congressional Committee expanding its independent expenditure campaign to $50 million, the widening cash flow to Republican challengers is a disturbing development for Democrats who are struggling to stem the incoming GOP tide.
Instead of slowing down, GOP momentum seems to be building. It makes you think that the wave hasn't quite crested yet which can only mean catastrophe for the Democrats on November 2.