There are many reason the Democrats are going to lose big next Tuesday, but not to be overlooked - and a reason that Democrats and Obama should be fearful about 2012 - is the sudden, dramatic shift of Independents from the Democrats to Republicans.
Politico:
In the Kentucky Senate race, which has been a single-digit affair for weeks, independents appear to be moving en masse to Rand Paul, the GOP nominee, giving him a comfortable lead heading into the final week.
Paul led by seven points overall in a September poll by Public Policy Polling (PPP) and had a seven-point advantage among independents. But in a new PPP survey released Tuesday, Paul now leads Conway 53-40 overall.
"Now that advantage with independents is a whooping 39 points at 66-27," writes PPP's Tom Jensen. "There's been virtually no movement among Democrats or Republicans over that period of time so most of the movement in the race can be attributed to that shift."
In the dead heat Illinois Senate race, Republican Mark Kirk is now up 44-41 over Democrat Alexi Giannoulias according to a Chicago Tribune/WGN poll released Monday-thanks in no small part to independents.
Kirk takes 50 percent of the undeclared voters to Giannoulias's 28 percent . In a Tribune/WGN poll a month ago, Kirk was taking 38 percent of independents while Giannoulias was taking the same 28 percent he's getting now.
Political independents are fickle folk and may reverse course again before the presidential election. But with all eyes turning to the GOP to get us out of the hole the Democrats have dug for us, Republicans have a great opportunity to make it easier for the indies to support them next time around if they demonstrate leadership and competence.
Hat Tip: Ed Lasky
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