Bob Shrum, perhaps the worst political consultant in history, has written a piece worthy of Comedy Central: "Democrats will hold the House and Senate:"
Maybe I'm wrong.
In fact, maybe I'm really, really wrong, which is the reaction I hear when I dare even to broach this notion to commentators and political strategists in both parties. So let me state it plainly: I now think the Democrats will hold the Congress-yes, the House as well as the Senate-and turn back high-profile Republican challengers in California and elsewhere.
The GOP strategy of "no" worked to slow the recovery, stoke fears about fictions like death panels in the health-reform bill, and persuade voters to strike out in frustration against Democrats. The trend peaked in August, a month Democrats probably wish they could abolish given the dog days they suffered then, in 2009 as well as 2010.
But with the onset of autumn, there are signs that the Republican tide is receding. Karl Rove would understand-the same dynamic was the key to George W. Bush's narrow re-election in 2004, when the GOP base showed up to vote in numbers that defied the polling models. This time, it's the Democratic base that's stirring-and finally engaging-and the survey research is registering the shift.
Kos and his minions may be "engaging" but that doesn't mean they are enthusiastic. That gap is still huge as evidenced by the GOP turnout in primaries which dwarfed the Democrat's numbers, as well as every survey that has measured voter enthusiasm this year.
Shrum may be right about the senate. And some Republicans are getting a little carried away in their expectations for gains in the House (probably closer to 45 rather than 70). But Shrum's pollyanish prognostication is further evidence why so many of his clients - Gephardt, Dukakis, Kerrey, Kerry, and Al Gore - failed to realize their presidential ambitions with this idiot running or being involved in their campaigns.