50 seat GOP gain say experts

Nate Silver has been collating information from the top prognosticators and finds a consensus emerging two weeks out from the election for a 50 seat GOP gain in the House:

[T]here is considerable uncertainty in the forecast because of the unusually large number of House seats now in play. A gain of as large as 70-80 seats is not completely out of the question if everything broke right for Republicans. Conversely, if Democrats managed to see a material rebound in their national standing over the final two weeks of the campaign, they could lose as few as 20-30 seats, as relatively few individual districts are certain pickups for Republicans.
In past weeks, we have written about the divergence between the various indicators that the model uses - for instance, the generic ballot, as compared against polls of individual districts. Increasingly, however, these metrics are falling into alignment.

Some generic ballot polls have shown incremental improvement in Democrats standing - although they still trail by roughly 6 points among likely voters on the generic ballot, according to our model's estimate. According to one commonly-used formula, a Republican lead of 6 points on the generic ballot would translate into a gain of about 50 seats.

Every polling outfit uses a different model for their "likely voter' scenarios so we should be warned not to try and compare apples and oranges. Nate's 6 point generic lead for the GOP may be lowballing a bit if you look at Gallup, whose model has the GOP ahead by twice that much. Rasmussen has the GOP leading by a little less than Gallup.

One big uncertainty; will the foreclosure mess hurt or help either side? If we have another financial meltdown prior to the election all bets are off. But this scenario seems to be fading a bit so at this point you'd have to say it will have a minimal impact on how people vote.



Nate Silver has been collating information from the top prognosticators and finds a consensus emerging two weeks out from the election for a 50 seat GOP gain in the House:

[T]here is considerable uncertainty in the forecast because of the unusually large number of House seats now in play. A gain of as large as 70-80 seats is not completely out of the question if everything broke right for Republicans. Conversely, if Democrats managed to see a material rebound in their national standing over the final two weeks of the campaign, they could lose as few as 20-30 seats, as relatively few individual districts are certain pickups for Republicans.

In past weeks, we have written about the divergence between the various indicators that the model uses - for instance, the generic ballot, as compared against polls of individual districts. Increasingly, however, these metrics are falling into alignment.

Some generic ballot polls have shown incremental improvement in Democrats standing - although they still trail by roughly 6 points among likely voters on the generic ballot, according to our model's estimate. According to one commonly-used formula, a Republican lead of 6 points on the generic ballot would translate into a gain of about 50 seats.

Every polling outfit uses a different model for their "likely voter' scenarios so we should be warned not to try and compare apples and oranges. Nate's 6 point generic lead for the GOP may be lowballing a bit if you look at Gallup, whose model has the GOP ahead by twice that much. Rasmussen has the GOP leading by a little less than Gallup.

One big uncertainty; will the foreclosure mess hurt or help either side? If we have another financial meltdown prior to the election all bets are off. But this scenario seems to be fading a bit so at this point you'd have to say it will have a minimal impact on how people vote.



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