Sabato's crystal ball sees red on election day

Rick Moran
One of the most astute political observers and poll watchers in America is the University of Virginia's Larry Sabato. His Crystal Ball blog is a must read for political junkies of both parties.

Sabato has just released his traditional Labor Day predictions and, if you have any Democratic friends, I would suggest hiding any and all sharp objects from them for a few months lest they wish to put themselves out of their coming misery:

Given what we can see at this moment, Republicans have a good chance to win the House by picking up as many as 47 seats, net. This is a "net" number since the GOP will probably lose several of its own congressional districts in Delaware, Hawaii, and Louisiana. This estimate, which may be raised or lowered by Election Day, is based on a careful district-by-district analysis, plus electoral modeling based on trends in President Obama's Gallup job approval rating and the Democratic-versus-Republican congressional generic ballot (discussed later in this essay). If anything, we have been conservative in estimating the probable GOP House gains, if the election were being held today.In the Senate, we now believe the GOP will do a bit better than our long-time prediction of +7 seats. Republicans have an outside shot at winning full control (+10), but are more likely to end up with +8 (or maybe +9, at which point it will be interesting to see how senators such as Joseph Lieberman of Connecticut, Ben Nelson of Nebraska, and others react). GOP leaders themselves did not believe such a result was truly possible just a few months ago. If the Republican wave on November 2 is as large as some polls are suggesting it may be, then the surprise on election night could be a full GOP takeover.

Like all good analysts at this point in the race, Sabato is being cautious but realistic. He points out that the GOP wave in the House may not be as big as some believe simply because the GOP has some vulnerable seats as well that they are almost certain to lose. Recall that the Democrats achieved their majority in 2006 without losing a single seat in the House. It is unlikely that such an impressive feat will be repeated by the GOP in 2010, hence a slight downward revision of their numbers are in order.

But the amazing thing is that Sabato believes they will still have plenty of leeway to takeover the House. We are 60 days out and a solid GOP majority in the House is shaping up and the possibility of a GOP senate takeover is growing by the week.

The tsunami continues to build.


Hat Tip: Ed Lasky





One of the most astute political observers and poll watchers in America is the University of Virginia's Larry Sabato. His Crystal Ball blog is a must read for political junkies of both parties.

Sabato has just released his traditional Labor Day predictions and, if you have any Democratic friends, I would suggest hiding any and all sharp objects from them for a few months lest they wish to put themselves out of their coming misery:

Given what we can see at this moment, Republicans have a good chance to win the House by picking up as many as 47 seats, net. This is a "net" number since the GOP will probably lose several of its own congressional districts in Delaware, Hawaii, and Louisiana. This estimate, which may be raised or lowered by Election Day, is based on a careful district-by-district analysis, plus electoral modeling based on trends in President Obama's Gallup job approval rating and the Democratic-versus-Republican congressional generic ballot (discussed later in this essay). If anything, we have been conservative in estimating the probable GOP House gains, if the election were being held today.

In the Senate, we now believe the GOP will do a bit better than our long-time prediction of +7 seats. Republicans have an outside shot at winning full control (+10), but are more likely to end up with +8 (or maybe +9, at which point it will be interesting to see how senators such as Joseph Lieberman of Connecticut, Ben Nelson of Nebraska, and others react). GOP leaders themselves did not believe such a result was truly possible just a few months ago. If the Republican wave on November 2 is as large as some polls are suggesting it may be, then the surprise on election night could be a full GOP takeover.

Like all good analysts at this point in the race, Sabato is being cautious but realistic. He points out that the GOP wave in the House may not be as big as some believe simply because the GOP has some vulnerable seats as well that they are almost certain to lose. Recall that the Democrats achieved their majority in 2006 without losing a single seat in the House. It is unlikely that such an impressive feat will be repeated by the GOP in 2010, hence a slight downward revision of their numbers are in order.

But the amazing thing is that Sabato believes they will still have plenty of leeway to takeover the House. We are 60 days out and a solid GOP majority in the House is shaping up and the possibility of a GOP senate takeover is growing by the week.

The tsunami continues to build.


Hat Tip: Ed Lasky