No, Democrats are not making a comeback

Hotline's Reid Wilson applies the necessary cold water to flights of fancy like this from WaPo's Dan Balz who see a silver lining in the Hurricane that is about to hit the Democrats in November:

Democratic strategists have recently started experiencing a new feeling of optimism. There are indications, they say, that the party is showing the smallest signs of a turnaround, and that rumors of their electoral demise have been premature.But instead of a comeback, Democrats are only experiencing the benefits of a base that is finally engaging. That base will help some Democratic candidates, but in total, the party still faces serious rehabilitation work with independent voters. The party's major problems are most evident in three prominent races that are slowly, but inexorably, sliding toward Republicans.

[...]

The news isn't all bad for Democrats. Recent surveys suggest Sens. Patty Murray, D-Wash., and Barbara Boxer, D-Calif., have benefited from a newly enthusiastic base. Four straight surveys recently showed Murray has support from more than 50 percent of voters, while Republicans find themselves newly pessimistic about their chances in the Golden State.

But more Democrats' circumstances resemble those of Manchin, Feingold and Blumenthal. Most of those other Democrats are lesser-known and not as well-funded. Until they are able to find a way to distance themselves from an unpopular president, abhor and eschew the rampant spending that has voters concerned, and turn voter anger to their own benefit, the slow slide away from the Democratic Party will continue, negating any advantage the party might gain as its base engages.

This is a pretty sharp analysis. The Dem base of liberal bloggers are finally facing up to the idea that sitting on the sidelines will only give the GOP an easy victory. Their engagement will probably keep the GOP from claiming a historic mandate of 70+ seats in the House and may save one or two senators and keep that body in Democratic hands. McMahon still faces an uphill battle in CT and strong union support in Nevada may yet save Harry Reid. But even with the base engaged, there doesn't appear any way the Dems can avoid huge losses.

Instead of 70 seats lost, it looks more like a 45-55 seat blow out at this point with mid level Democratic targets becoming very vulnerable. In short, angry voters are more inclined to vote than dispirited ones.


Hotline's Reid Wilson applies the necessary cold water to flights of fancy like this from WaPo's Dan Balz who see a silver lining in the Hurricane that is about to hit the Democrats in November:

Democratic strategists have recently started experiencing a new feeling of optimism. There are indications, they say, that the party is showing the smallest signs of a turnaround, and that rumors of their electoral demise have been premature.

But instead of a comeback, Democrats are only experiencing the benefits of a base that is finally engaging. That base will help some Democratic candidates, but in total, the party still faces serious rehabilitation work with independent voters. The party's major problems are most evident in three prominent races that are slowly, but inexorably, sliding toward Republicans.

[...]

The news isn't all bad for Democrats. Recent surveys suggest Sens. Patty Murray, D-Wash., and Barbara Boxer, D-Calif., have benefited from a newly enthusiastic base. Four straight surveys recently showed Murray has support from more than 50 percent of voters, while Republicans find themselves newly pessimistic about their chances in the Golden State.

But more Democrats' circumstances resemble those of Manchin, Feingold and Blumenthal. Most of those other Democrats are lesser-known and not as well-funded. Until they are able to find a way to distance themselves from an unpopular president, abhor and eschew the rampant spending that has voters concerned, and turn voter anger to their own benefit, the slow slide away from the Democratic Party will continue, negating any advantage the party might gain as its base engages.

This is a pretty sharp analysis. The Dem base of liberal bloggers are finally facing up to the idea that sitting on the sidelines will only give the GOP an easy victory. Their engagement will probably keep the GOP from claiming a historic mandate of 70+ seats in the House and may save one or two senators and keep that body in Democratic hands. McMahon still faces an uphill battle in CT and strong union support in Nevada may yet save Harry Reid. But even with the base engaged, there doesn't appear any way the Dems can avoid huge losses.

Instead of 70 seats lost, it looks more like a 45-55 seat blow out at this point with mid level Democratic targets becoming very vulnerable. In short, angry voters are more inclined to vote than dispirited ones.


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