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July 15, 2010 Kagan nomination hits roadblock
The Judiciary Committee vote on Elena Kagan is being delayed one week.
Kagan's nomination is not polling well. According to the latest numbers from Rasmussen:
A delay may not be in Kagan's interest. In a we won't be fooled again moment after Justice's Sotomayor's vote in MacDonald v Chicago the NRA has come out against the Kagan nomination.
The NRA is running ads urging members and supporters to contact their Senators. This puts Harry Reid and other Senate Democrats up for reelection in a bind. They have to be seen as supporting the President's nominee but Reid is in a tight race and he has always scored high with the NRA. He may be a liberal but Nevada was part of the Old West, a fact he has almost never forgotten. Many Democrats know that their current majority status came when they stopped pushing gun control as an issue on the campaign trail. Indeed, key races across the nation this year have Democrat candidates saying they are champions for gun rights. The NRA's making this a scored vote for their endorsement greatly complicates matters for Democrat Senators defending seats in Arkansas, Colorado, Washington and Wisconsin. Like House Democrats and the deficit ballooning budget that was deemed to be passed, they probably wish the matter would just go away. Could it happen? Could Kagan's nomination wither on the vine? It's probably unlikely. But at the back of my mind is the tale John Bolton tells in his excellent memoir Surrender is Not an Option, on how Harry Reid is a master of the rope a dope when it comes to killing a nomination while appearing to approve it going forward. When Bolton was nominated as UN Ambassador in Spring 2005 that vote was also delayed in getting out of the committee. When it reached the floor of the Senate then Minority Leader Reid told Senate Majority leader Bill Frist the Democrats wouldn't filibuster. Frist then scheduled a cloture vote that failed because of absences from the Senate that day! Reid again told Frist there was no filibuster. Frist scheduled a second cloture vote which also failed, again not because 41 Senators voted No but because once again not everyone was present to vote! Frist looked incompetent and Reid looked like a fox. It could happen. The wimpiest of the Republicans are also from rural states where gun control is anathema. NRA members could influence them even if there inclination is to give the President his nominee. This time as Majority Leader Reid would be the one looking like a fool for not counting heads ahead of time, but if he thought it would help save his seat? Looking like a fool has seldom been an issue for Harry Reid.
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