The Baehr Essentials

Dan Gordon and Richard Baehr
Good news: A 3rd party leftist is to challenge Dems who did not support health care reform in North Carolina. Bring it on.

New ratings in RCP on House and Senate and governors races show continued and decisive movement to the GOP. The last time they made these ratings, there were 44 Democratic held House seats that were solidly Republican, lean Republican, or tossups. Today: 55. If you throw in lean Democratic seats, you get 84 Democratic held seats. Last time: 62. 

In essence, new seats continue to show up on the list, and seats move from likely Dem to lean Dem, and from Lean Dem to tossup, and from tossup to lean GOP. Very few GOP held seats are in jeopardy (between 3 and 6).

Similarly with the Senate, RCP now shows GOP ahead in 6 Democratic held seats, with 3 others as tossups. If all tossups are pushed one way or the other, GOP gains 8 Senate seats to get to 49. In governors races, GOP is plus 4. All of this will enable GOP challengers to do better with fundraising. Cook and Rothenberg have been slower to reclassify races, but they also show significant movement towards GOP, but seem one cycle behind RCP ratings.

I think the GOP is at least 50-50 to win back the House at this point.

****

Neither Bill Clinton, nor Barack Obama, has had or has any use for freely elected Israeli Prime Minister Bibi Netanyahu. Clinton has now circled the wagons with his wife, and endorsed the Obama effort on the Middle East. Maybe he secretly thinks Obama's policies are a disaster, and Obama will go down in 2012.  Then Hillary can then crank it up one more time,  and try for the Presidency  again in 2016.   If that were to happen, Hillary would need to go back to New York, and raise money by telling the Jews how much she really loves both them, and Israel. Given Hillary's role as Obama's very loyal first  officer in delivering the bad news to Israel in this administration, the reality may be that her feelings about the Jewish state reflect the now forgotten hug and kisses with Suha Arafat,  as opposed to the statements uttered as a candidate while shilling for campaign money in liberal Jewish precincts.   Actually, Hillary needn't have faked it.  She should know by now  that many more Jews voted for her because of her views on abortion, than her support of Israel.   In any case, Mitchell Bard provides a reminder of how  Yitzhak Rabin viewed as the end result of the peace process. Rabin, after all, was not the hardline guy like Netanyahu, the Israeli leader that the last two Democratic Presidents tried to bring down.

I guess this means Rabin was really a hardline extremist, and an obstacle to peace. 

****

The golfer in chief may have secretly been pleased that the volcanic ash fog prevented him from needing to go the Poland for the funeral of that country's former President.  This enabled him to play his 32nd round of golf in 15 months as President, more than George Bush managed to fit in in 8 years. Ed Lasky was the first to point out that the President loves to give speeches,   but he has actually been pretty lazy on the job. Golf rules.

*****

Jon Schanzer on El Baradei's possible future role in Egyptian politics:  

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Jeff Jacoby says let the market decide whether they want to pay certain airline fees, by choosing their airline.  This is a foreign concept to Democrats in Congress.  Chuck Schumer, who is still to be heard from on the Obama bashing of Israel, is very upset with Spirit Airlines.   

****

Certain members of the Obama administration seem to be starting early with a CYA routine to try to separate themselves from the utter failure of the American effort (assuming they care, and are actually trying)  to stop Iran from getting the bomb. Who was leaker of the Gates memo to the
New York Times?

****

The Obama administration, and its allies in the media (e.g. Frank Rich, Joe Klein, Keith Olbermann), will try for the next six months to convince you that opposition to Obama is really all about race , particularly with the Tea party. This Pew survey suggests something very different- the opposition to the administration is focused on resistance to and discomfort with the rapidly growing role of the government.  Americans have long supported equality of opportunity.  They have not supported government-enforced equality of results. Nothing could be clearer today than the fact that the Obama administration supports equality of results, and only pays lip service to equality of opportunity. If you fail, because you didn't try, you still should win. 
Good news: A 3rd party leftist is to challenge Dems who did not support health care reform in North Carolina. Bring it on.

New ratings in RCP on House and Senate and governors races show continued and decisive movement to the GOP. The last time they made these ratings, there were 44 Democratic held House seats that were solidly Republican, lean Republican, or tossups. Today: 55. If you throw in lean Democratic seats, you get 84 Democratic held seats. Last time: 62. 

In essence, new seats continue to show up on the list, and seats move from likely Dem to lean Dem, and from Lean Dem to tossup, and from tossup to lean GOP. Very few GOP held seats are in jeopardy (between 3 and 6).

Similarly with the Senate, RCP now shows GOP ahead in 6 Democratic held seats, with 3 others as tossups. If all tossups are pushed one way or the other, GOP gains 8 Senate seats to get to 49. In governors races, GOP is plus 4. All of this will enable GOP challengers to do better with fundraising. Cook and Rothenberg have been slower to reclassify races, but they also show significant movement towards GOP, but seem one cycle behind RCP ratings.

I think the GOP is at least 50-50 to win back the House at this point.

****

Neither Bill Clinton, nor Barack Obama, has had or has any use for freely elected Israeli Prime Minister Bibi Netanyahu. Clinton has now circled the wagons with his wife, and endorsed the Obama effort on the Middle East. Maybe he secretly thinks Obama's policies are a disaster, and Obama will go down in 2012.  Then Hillary can then crank it up one more time,  and try for the Presidency  again in 2016.   If that were to happen, Hillary would need to go back to New York, and raise money by telling the Jews how much she really loves both them, and Israel. Given Hillary's role as Obama's very loyal first  officer in delivering the bad news to Israel in this administration, the reality may be that her feelings about the Jewish state reflect the now forgotten hug and kisses with Suha Arafat,  as opposed to the statements uttered as a candidate while shilling for campaign money in liberal Jewish precincts.   Actually, Hillary needn't have faked it.  She should know by now  that many more Jews voted for her because of her views on abortion, than her support of Israel.   In any case, Mitchell Bard provides a reminder of how  Yitzhak Rabin viewed as the end result of the peace process. Rabin, after all, was not the hardline guy like Netanyahu, the Israeli leader that the last two Democratic Presidents tried to bring down.

I guess this means Rabin was really a hardline extremist, and an obstacle to peace. 

****

The golfer in chief may have secretly been pleased that the volcanic ash fog prevented him from needing to go the Poland for the funeral of that country's former President.  This enabled him to play his 32nd round of golf in 15 months as President, more than George Bush managed to fit in in 8 years. Ed Lasky was the first to point out that the President loves to give speeches,   but he has actually been pretty lazy on the job. Golf rules.

*****

Jon Schanzer on El Baradei's possible future role in Egyptian politics:  

****

Jeff Jacoby says let the market decide whether they want to pay certain airline fees, by choosing their airline.  This is a foreign concept to Democrats in Congress.  Chuck Schumer, who is still to be heard from on the Obama bashing of Israel, is very upset with Spirit Airlines.   

****

Certain members of the Obama administration seem to be starting early with a CYA routine to try to separate themselves from the utter failure of the American effort (assuming they care, and are actually trying)  to stop Iran from getting the bomb. Who was leaker of the Gates memo to the
New York Times?

****

The Obama administration, and its allies in the media (e.g. Frank Rich, Joe Klein, Keith Olbermann), will try for the next six months to convince you that opposition to Obama is really all about race , particularly with the Tea party. This Pew survey suggests something very different- the opposition to the administration is focused on resistance to and discomfort with the rapidly growing role of the government.  Americans have long supported equality of opportunity.  They have not supported government-enforced equality of results. Nothing could be clearer today than the fact that the Obama administration supports equality of results, and only pays lip service to equality of opportunity. If you fail, because you didn't try, you still should win.