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November 2, 2009
Connecting the dots of Obama's falling polls
As Barack Obama's numbers continue to tank across all the polls, some interesting trends are showing in the newly minted C. Edmund Wright "Give A Damn, " "Got a Chance" and "Get a Clue" indices.
We also have a rare opportunity to run a snapshot of the new "Get Away Now" index, which is a measure of how poisonous Obama is to Democrat candidates.
The Give a Damn index is an iteration of Rasmussen's results. Briefly, it charts the intensity of approval-disapproval as measured by percentages of strong feelings versus ambivalence. While Rasmussen's overall approval index today is -13 -- strongly disapproves outnumbering strongly approves 40-27% -- Obama's "Give a Damn" index has fallen to -18. The math is this: 77% of his total opposition is strong and only 59% of his support is strong. Short of a game-changing event -- which do happen in politics from time to time -- this indicates that the natural path from here is even further downward.
The "Got a Chance" index is at -34%, meaning that 67% of the country is decided strongly while 33% is up for grabs with soft opinions. To reach equilibrium, he would have to convince 70% of the soft group to strongly approve of him.
The "Get a Clue" index is as much a comment on the sad state of mainstream polling in the country as it is a comment on Obama. It contrasts polls using the highest denominator -- likely voters -- versus the polls using the lowest common denominator: adults. This index is developed to show how a President is doing among the most engaged adults versus how he is doing among all adults over all. This is also a tweak at polls who use registered or likely voters during election years to improve accuracy but who transparently switch to "adults" in off-years to drive an agenda.
Using the most recent Gallup, USA Today, ABC, NBC and CNN's surveys shamelessly using only adults, the average approval is +13. Rasmussen's likely voters today have an overall approval of -6. Thus a "Get a Clue" index of -19.
And tomorrow we will have some interesting information on the Obama "Get Away Now" index. This measures the difference between the vote percentage Obama received in 2008 versus what the Democrat is getting in a current race. These results today are based on the latest polls, but of course will be defined more clearly Tuesday.
Snapshot of the C. Edmund Wright Indices:
Give A Damn Index -18
Got a Chance Index -34
Get a Clue Index -19
Get Away Index Va -19
Get Away Index NJ -22
Get Away Index NY 23 -7