Michael Ledeen, who has always been a shrewd observer of the events in Iran, says this regime is virtually over; it is being met with ridicule from fellow clerics and citizens alike; high ranking members are racing to make deals with their opponents, and even the dreaded Basij are refusing to attack the anti-regime protestors.
How much can we expect from a shift in power? Obama shouldn't expect much, he warns:
There are no contacts between the American Government and the leaders of the opposition. One should not expect the new government to look kindly upon a President Obama who publicly sweet-talked the Tehran butchers, and all but begged Khamenei for a few minutes of his precious time. The same applies to the Europeans, all of whom scrambled for oil and other commercial contracts, and none of whom talked to the Green leaders.
As so often, Martin Luther King Jr. summed it up perfectly: "In the end we will remember not the words of our enemies, but the silence of our friends."