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September 2, 2009
A possible nail in the coffin of Obamacare
September seems that it might be the make or break month for some form of ObamaCare to pass.
While public protests and increased budget deficits have damaged the prospects for passage, one more factor has yet to emerge as a potential bill-killer: the stock market. September tends to be a bad month historically for stocks and the probability of this historical pattern holding true to form is increased by: weakness in the Chinese market-which casts doubt on the worldwide recovery story stoked by Chinese GDP growth; and by the fact that our own stock market has soared since March making profit-taking a reasonable scenario. A major firm just cut its recommended allocation of equity exposure in the American stock market.
A "correction" (as market pundits like to say) may very well be in the offing.
This will make people even more nervous about big changes - especially changes that have the prospect of increased taxes that will take money out of their wallets and purses. People worried about their own finances make them more likely to resist big government programs that are likely to make their own, as well as government finances, less secure.