The Rasmussen survey now shows the GOP with its biggest lead of the year in the generic ballot: 43% to 38% over the Democrats. This result seems consistent with 14 point leads for the two Republican candidates in the two governors' races this November, in New Jersey and Virginia, states won by Barack Obama last year by 15%, and 7% respectively.  Obama has campaigned in both states recently, and despite this, the lead for the GOP candidate in each race has grown. While Obama won the national popular vote last year by 7.2%, the Democratic candidates won even bigger margins in Senate and House races, if all individual race totals are combined, which explains why they significantly expanded their majorities in both Houses of Congress. We are, in other words, seeing a sea change in political sentiment in just 9 months.Various neutral observers such as Stuart Rothenberg now see a possibility for the GOP to gain Senate seats, as opposed to losing more seats next year (the GOP has far...(Read Full Post)