Charlie Cook: Dem prospects for 2010 tanking

Charlie Cook is one of the most respected pollsters of either party in the country. He was predicting a Dem landslide in both 2006 and 2008 months before election day and was extremely accurate in estimating the final tallies.

He polls exclusively for Democrats which is why his analysis of the current political landscape is so shocking.

From Politico's The Scorecard:

Charlie Cook, one of the best political handicappers in the business, sent out a special update to Cook Political Report subscribers Thursday that should send shivers down Democratic spines.

Reviewing recent polling and the 2010 election landscape, Cook can envision a scenario in which Democratic House losses could exceed 20 seats.

"These data confirm anecdotal evidence, and our own view, that the situation this summer has slipped completely out of control for President Obama and Congressional Democrats. Today, The Cook Political Report's Congressional election model, based on individual races, is pointing toward a net Democratic loss of between six and 12 seats, but our sense, factoring in macro-political dynamics is that this is far too low," he wrote.

"Many veteran Congressional election watchers, including Democratic ones, report an eerie sense of déjà vu, with a consensus forming that the chances of Democratic losses going higher than 20 seats is just as good as the chances of Democratic losses going lower than 20 seats."

Cook scrupulously avoided any mention that Democratic control of the House is in jeopardy but, noting a new Gallup poll showing Congress' job disapproval at 70 percent among independents, concluded that the post-recess environment could feel considerably different than when Congress left in August.

From what I've read, the GOP is doing a good to excellent job of recruiting candidates to run in vulnerable Democratic districts. This is a turnaround from 2006 and 2008 when candidate recruitment by Democrats spelled the difference.

Could history be repeating itself and a landslide is in the offing for the GOP in 2010?

There are several factors working against that scenario but most professionals are now willing to entertain the possibility. That's a far cry from last January when talk of a permanent Democratic majority was all the rage.

And it took less than 8 months.






Charlie Cook is one of the most respected pollsters of either party in the country. He was predicting a Dem landslide in both 2006 and 2008 months before election day and was extremely accurate in estimating the final tallies.

He polls exclusively for Democrats which is why his analysis of the current political landscape is so shocking.

From Politico's The Scorecard:

Charlie Cook, one of the best political handicappers in the business, sent out a special update to Cook Political Report subscribers Thursday that should send shivers down Democratic spines.

Reviewing recent polling and the 2010 election landscape, Cook can envision a scenario in which Democratic House losses could exceed 20 seats.

"These data confirm anecdotal evidence, and our own view, that the situation this summer has slipped completely out of control for President Obama and Congressional Democrats. Today, The Cook Political Report's Congressional election model, based on individual races, is pointing toward a net Democratic loss of between six and 12 seats, but our sense, factoring in macro-political dynamics is that this is far too low," he wrote.

"Many veteran Congressional election watchers, including Democratic ones, report an eerie sense of déjà vu, with a consensus forming that the chances of Democratic losses going higher than 20 seats is just as good as the chances of Democratic losses going lower than 20 seats."

Cook scrupulously avoided any mention that Democratic control of the House is in jeopardy but, noting a new Gallup poll showing Congress' job disapproval at 70 percent among independents, concluded that the post-recess environment could feel considerably different than when Congress left in August.

From what I've read, the GOP is doing a good to excellent job of recruiting candidates to run in vulnerable Democratic districts. This is a turnaround from 2006 and 2008 when candidate recruitment by Democrats spelled the difference.

Could history be repeating itself and a landslide is in the offing for the GOP in 2010?

There are several factors working against that scenario but most professionals are now willing to entertain the possibility. That's a far cry from last January when talk of a permanent Democratic majority was all the rage.

And it took less than 8 months.