Obama admin spiking the bad budget news

Tom Suhadolnik
It seems the Obama Administration is trying to hide the proverbial dead elephant in the middle of the room.

Traditionally the executive branch releases the annual midsummer budget update in mid-July.  This update replaces data from budgets and forecasts with actual spending and revenue figures from the first half of the federal fiscal year which ended March 31, 2009.  By using real data the Office of Management and Budget can provide a more accurate forecast of deficits or surpluses going forward.

The Obama Administration is breaking tradition by delaying the release of the information until mid-August - after Congress leaves for its summer recess.  The Obama administration is also trying to push congress to pass health care reform bills before the recess.

As I type, the NYT Caucus Column is one of the few sources currently reporting on this wonky issue.  This Google Search should show other reporting on the issue if it becomes available.

Although the Whitehouse is able to spike the deficit projections for the rest of FY 2009, the actual deficit numbers are available for the first three quarters of FY 2009 and they are not pretty.  The June 2009 Monthly Treasury Statement reports:

YTD Deficit FY2008 - $US 454.8 billion 

YTD Deficit FY2009 - $US 1086.3 billion

Although increased spending initiatives like the Stimulus Bill make headlines, the vast majority of the money in the Stimulus bill has not been spent.  The biggest change to the federal financial picture is a $345.2 billion drop in YTD revenue between FY 2008 and FY2009.  This represents a staggering %17.9 percent of revenue.  This revenue drop far worse than most observers expected and has not made its way into many forecasts as of yet.

According to the Federal Reserve, unemployment is expected to remain at or above current levels into the end of 2010.  Stimulus Bill spending is expected to start in earnest FY2010.  If revenues continue to drop or stay at their current anemic levels, and spending begins to rise sharply, we might one day look back fondly at our current $US $1086.3 billion deficit.

Oh, and remember that record breaking $1086.3 billion is only for the first 9 months of FY2009.  We still have 3 months to raise the bar.
It seems the Obama Administration is trying to hide the proverbial dead elephant in the middle of the room.

Traditionally the executive branch releases the annual midsummer budget update in mid-July.  This update replaces data from budgets and forecasts with actual spending and revenue figures from the first half of the federal fiscal year which ended March 31, 2009.  By using real data the Office of Management and Budget can provide a more accurate forecast of deficits or surpluses going forward.

The Obama Administration is breaking tradition by delaying the release of the information until mid-August - after Congress leaves for its summer recess.  The Obama administration is also trying to push congress to pass health care reform bills before the recess.

As I type, the NYT Caucus Column is one of the few sources currently reporting on this wonky issue.  This Google Search should show other reporting on the issue if it becomes available.

Although the Whitehouse is able to spike the deficit projections for the rest of FY 2009, the actual deficit numbers are available for the first three quarters of FY 2009 and they are not pretty.  The June 2009 Monthly Treasury Statement reports:

YTD Deficit FY2008 - $US 454.8 billion 

YTD Deficit FY2009 - $US 1086.3 billion

Although increased spending initiatives like the Stimulus Bill make headlines, the vast majority of the money in the Stimulus bill has not been spent.  The biggest change to the federal financial picture is a $345.2 billion drop in YTD revenue between FY 2008 and FY2009.  This represents a staggering %17.9 percent of revenue.  This revenue drop far worse than most observers expected and has not made its way into many forecasts as of yet.

According to the Federal Reserve, unemployment is expected to remain at or above current levels into the end of 2010.  Stimulus Bill spending is expected to start in earnest FY2010.  If revenues continue to drop or stay at their current anemic levels, and spending begins to rise sharply, we might one day look back fondly at our current $US $1086.3 billion deficit.

Oh, and remember that record breaking $1086.3 billion is only for the first 9 months of FY2009.  We still have 3 months to raise the bar.