Iran II: Making sense of events

"It's a disaster of course," an American reporter in Tehran told The Cable Saturday. "A few violent clashes in distant towns. People are angry, devastated. Crying. Streets in Tehran mostly quiet. Heavy security presence. Street in front of Interior ministry blocked off. People tell me Mousavi and Karrubi will join together to fight this. Rafanjani is really angry, so it's said. Big clampdown expected. I'm afraid people's hopes will be crushed."

Ahmadinejad is expected to hold a press conference and victory rally Sunday. Afterwards, the foreign press may be kicked out, Dayanim relayed; the Associated Press later said foreign press on visas to cover the elections were being told to prepare to depart.

Ahmadinejad, in a nationally televised victory speech, said that the election process had been "free and healthy," and accused the foreign media of coverage that harms the Iranian people. There was more rioting at night and fires continued to burn on the streets of Tehran.

"People voted for my policies," the conservative president said in his first post-election comment. "It was a free and healthy election," he said, without making direct reference to electoral violation assertions by Mousavi.

As he was speaking, supporters of Mousavi clashed with police in various places in Tehran, chanting anti-Ahmadinejad slogans, witnesses said.

"Everybody should respect people's vote ... we need a calm atmosphere to build the country," Ahmadinejad said. He also took a swipe at his opponents in the election, which was marked by unprecedented mudslinging.

Ahmadinejad, who swept to power in 2005 pledging to revive the values of the 1979 Islamic revolution, accused his opponents of corruption during the campaign. They accused him of lying about the economy, which is suffering from high inflation.

"I named some people during the campaign. I was accused of insulting them, but it is not an insult," he said, referring to his comments about Rafsanjani. "Those who have revolutionary background are not allowed to have extravagant demands," he said.

On the basis of what we know so far, here is the sequence of events starting on the afternoon of election day, Friday, June 12.

• Near closing time of the polls, mobile text messaging was turned off nationwide
• Security forces poured out into the streets in large numbers
• The Ministry of Interior (election headquarters) was surrounded by concrete barriers and armed men
• National television began broadcasting pre-recorded messages calling for everyone to unite behind the winner
• The Mousavi campaign was informed officially that they had won the election, which perhaps served to temporarily lull  them into complacency
• But then the Ministry of Interior announced a landslide victory for Ahmadinejad
• Unlike previous elections, there was no breakdown of the vote by province, which would have provided a way of judging its credibility
• The voting patterns announced by the government were identical in all parts of the country, an impossibility (also see the comments of Juan Cole at the title link)
• Less than 24 hours later, Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamene`i  publicly announced his congratulations to the winner, apparently confirming that the process was complete and irrevocable, contrary to constitutional requirements
• Shortly thereafter, all mobile phones, Facebook, and other social networks were blocked, as well as major foreign news sources.