Rasmussen: Generic ballot now 41-38 - in favor of GOP

This new survey by Rasmussen is interesting and definitely shows that the GOP is climbing out of the hole it dug for itself in 2008.

But congressional and senate races are all local and will turn largely on local issues. Taken individually by state and congressional district, the GOP still has a ways to go.

And as Rasmussen points out, this is not so much a GOP surge as it is a Democratic fall off:

A new Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey found that 41% would vote for their district's Republican candidate while 38% would choose the Democrat. Thirty-one percent (31%) of conservative Democrats said they would vote for their district's Republican candidate.

Overall, the GOP gained two points this week, while the Democrats lost a point in support. Still, it's important to note that the GOP's improved position comes primarily from falling Democratic support. Democrats are currently at their lowest level of support in the past year while Republicans are at the high water mark.

Over the past year, Democratic support has ranged from a low of 38% to a high of 50%. In that same time period, Republicans have been preferred by 34% to 41% of voters nationwide.



Backlash against spending, takeovers, and bailouts among more conservative Democrats? I think that would be a good guess. And surprisingly,given all the negative publicity in the media and by Democrats, I think the tea parties probably boosted the GOP image even if they didn't have much to do with it.

Every comeback has to start somewhere.

This new survey by Rasmussen is interesting and definitely shows that the GOP is climbing out of the hole it dug for itself in 2008.

But congressional and senate races are all local and will turn largely on local issues. Taken individually by state and congressional district, the GOP still has a ways to go.

And as Rasmussen points out, this is not so much a GOP surge as it is a Democratic fall off:

A new Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey found that 41% would vote for their district's Republican candidate while 38% would choose the Democrat. Thirty-one percent (31%) of conservative Democrats said they would vote for their district's Republican candidate.

Overall, the GOP gained two points this week, while the Democrats lost a point in support. Still, it's important to note that the GOP's improved position comes primarily from falling Democratic support. Democrats are currently at their lowest level of support in the past year while Republicans are at the high water mark.

Over the past year, Democratic support has ranged from a low of 38% to a high of 50%. In that same time period, Republicans have been preferred by 34% to 41% of voters nationwide.



Backlash against spending, takeovers, and bailouts among more conservative Democrats? I think that would be a good guess. And surprisingly,given all the negative publicity in the media and by Democrats, I think the tea parties probably boosted the GOP image even if they didn't have much to do with it.

Every comeback has to start somewhere.