Latest polls point to an easy win by Chambliss in GA

Rick Moran
I wouldn't drop the balloons and throw the confetti just yet but it appears that incumbent GOP senator Saxbe Chambliss is going to cruise to an easy win in today's Georgia senate runoff election:

Public Policy Polling has it Chambliss 53 to 47 over his challenger Democrat Jim Martin while Insider Advantage has Chambliss by 4.

And Chambliss apparently has a massive lead among white voters:

PPP's final Georgia runoff poll finds overwhelming support from white voters likely to result in the reelection of Saxby Chambliss.

Chambliss is up 71-28 on Jim Martin with whites. For Martin to win the runoff with that performance, the electorate would have to be 34% African American. Given that it was only 30% for the general election with Barack Obama at the top of the ballot and that early voting was less than 23% black, that does not seem particularly likely.

Chambliss is up 58-41 among those poll respondents who reported having participated in early voting, not surprising given the overwhelmingly white nature of those who have already cast their ballots. Martin will need an incredible Democratic turnout at the polls tomorrow to make up for the deficit he goes into election day with based on early voters.

You will note that Obama made little effort to help Martin, not wishing to put his newly won credibility on the line in what is still a pretty Republican state. Smart politics I suppose but once again we see Obama taking the easy road, the safe road rather than taking a chance. Who knows? Perhaps a big effort by Obama and his surrogates could have whipped up enthusiasm for Martin among African Americans and put him over the top.

We have seen this attitude to give himself an easy time in his safe cabinet choices and his ambivalence toward tossing the Patriot Act and the Terrorist Surveillance Program. He has even been somewhat non-committal on closing Gitmo although almost everyone expects him to carry through with that campaign promise.

The problem is that what is needed is bold leadership. So far, Obama has been most disappointing in that regard.



I wouldn't drop the balloons and throw the confetti just yet but it appears that incumbent GOP senator Saxbe Chambliss is going to cruise to an easy win in today's Georgia senate runoff election:

Public Policy Polling has it Chambliss 53 to 47 over his challenger Democrat Jim Martin while Insider Advantage has Chambliss by 4.

And Chambliss apparently has a massive lead among white voters:

PPP's final Georgia runoff poll finds overwhelming support from white voters likely to result in the reelection of Saxby Chambliss.

Chambliss is up 71-28 on Jim Martin with whites. For Martin to win the runoff with that performance, the electorate would have to be 34% African American. Given that it was only 30% for the general election with Barack Obama at the top of the ballot and that early voting was less than 23% black, that does not seem particularly likely.

Chambliss is up 58-41 among those poll respondents who reported having participated in early voting, not surprising given the overwhelmingly white nature of those who have already cast their ballots. Martin will need an incredible Democratic turnout at the polls tomorrow to make up for the deficit he goes into election day with based on early voters.

You will note that Obama made little effort to help Martin, not wishing to put his newly won credibility on the line in what is still a pretty Republican state. Smart politics I suppose but once again we see Obama taking the easy road, the safe road rather than taking a chance. Who knows? Perhaps a big effort by Obama and his surrogates could have whipped up enthusiasm for Martin among African Americans and put him over the top.

We have seen this attitude to give himself an easy time in his safe cabinet choices and his ambivalence toward tossing the Patriot Act and the Terrorist Surveillance Program. He has even been somewhat non-committal on closing Gitmo although almost everyone expects him to carry through with that campaign promise.

The problem is that what is needed is bold leadership. So far, Obama has been most disappointing in that regard.