Business Week: The 10 worst predictions for 2008

It's the end of the year and both the MSM and bloggers have begun the annual exercise in listmania - the urge to boil down the year that just past by cataloguing the top ten this or that with the best/worst of something else.

We all succumb to it because it doesn't take much effort and its fun. Besides, who wants to work hard during the week between Christmas and New Years?

Business Week has an interesting top 10; "The Worst Predictions of 2008." These are in the business sector so you can imagine some of the doozies. Here are a few:

2. AIG (NYSE:AIG - News) "could have huge gains in the second quarter." -- Bijan Moazami, analyst, Friedman, Billings, Ramsey, May 9, 2008

AIG wound up losing $5 billion in that quarter and $25 billion in the next. It was taken over in September by the U.S. government, which will spend or lend $150 billion to keep it afloat.

3. "I think this is a case where Freddie Mac (NYSE:FRE - News) and Fannie Mae (NYSE:FNM - News) are fundamentally sound. They're not in danger of going under I think they are in good shape going forward." -- Barney Frank (D-Mass.), House Financial Services Committee chairman, July 14, 2008

Two months later, the government forced the mortgage giants into conservatorships and pledged to invest up to $100 billion in each.

4. "The market is in the process of correcting itself." -- President George W. Bush, in a Mar. 14, 2008 speech

For the rest of the year, the market kept correcting and correcting and correcting.

5. "No! No! No! Bear Stearns is not in trouble." -- Jim Cramer, CNBC commentator, Mar. 11, 2008

Five days later, JPMorgan Chase (NYSE:JPM - News) took over Bear Stearns with government help, nearly wiping out shareholders.

No doubt the author could have expanded this piece and made it a "Top 100" bad predictions but then, that would have only increased the workload.

A real challenge would be to come up with any accurate predictions at all during 2008. And don't say "Paul Krugman." Krugman proves the million monkey theory of economic forcasting; eventually, if you predict doom and gloom often enough, you get it right.



It's the end of the year and both the MSM and bloggers have begun the annual exercise in listmania - the urge to boil down the year that just past by cataloguing the top ten this or that with the best/worst of something else.

We all succumb to it because it doesn't take much effort and its fun. Besides, who wants to work hard during the week between Christmas and New Years?

Business Week has an interesting top 10; "The Worst Predictions of 2008." These are in the business sector so you can imagine some of the doozies. Here are a few:

2. AIG (NYSE:AIG - News) "could have huge gains in the second quarter." -- Bijan Moazami, analyst, Friedman, Billings, Ramsey, May 9, 2008

AIG wound up losing $5 billion in that quarter and $25 billion in the next. It was taken over in September by the U.S. government, which will spend or lend $150 billion to keep it afloat.

3. "I think this is a case where Freddie Mac (NYSE:FRE - News) and Fannie Mae (NYSE:FNM - News) are fundamentally sound. They're not in danger of going under I think they are in good shape going forward." -- Barney Frank (D-Mass.), House Financial Services Committee chairman, July 14, 2008

Two months later, the government forced the mortgage giants into conservatorships and pledged to invest up to $100 billion in each.

4. "The market is in the process of correcting itself." -- President George W. Bush, in a Mar. 14, 2008 speech

For the rest of the year, the market kept correcting and correcting and correcting.

5. "No! No! No! Bear Stearns is not in trouble." -- Jim Cramer, CNBC commentator, Mar. 11, 2008

Five days later, JPMorgan Chase (NYSE:JPM - News) took over Bear Stearns with government help, nearly wiping out shareholders.

No doubt the author could have expanded this piece and made it a "Top 100" bad predictions but then, that would have only increased the workload.

A real challenge would be to come up with any accurate predictions at all during 2008. And don't say "Paul Krugman." Krugman proves the million monkey theory of economic forcasting; eventually, if you predict doom and gloom often enough, you get it right.