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October 21, 2008

Joe Biden's Dated Notion of Crisis

Kyle-Anne Shiver & Lee Cary
Last Sunday, when Joe Biden predicted that a President Obama would soon be tested by one of our enemies he displayed dated crisis management notions.

Here's what Joe said,

"Mark my words," the Democratic vice presidential nominee warned at the second of his two Seattle fundraisers Sunday. "It will not be six months before the world tests Barack Obama like they did John Kennedy. The world is looking. We're about to elect a brilliant 47-year-old senator president of the United States of America. Remember I said it standing here if you don't remember anything else I said. Watch, we're gonna have an international crisis, a generated crisis, to test the mettle of this guy."

"I can give you at least four or five scenarios from where it might originate," Biden said to Emerald City supporters, mentioning the Middle East and Russia as possibilities.

After sounding the alarm, macho Joe sought to assure the audience saying,

"I've forgotten more about foreign policy than most of my colleagues know, so I'm not being falsely humble with you. I think I can be value added, but this guy has it," the Senate Foreign Relations chairman said of Obama.

This would be like going to a clinic and having your physician say, "Look, you're in pretty decent health now, but shortly you'll come down with one of several serious illnesses. Don't know which one, since there's a whole host to chose from.  But don't worry. Our Chief of Staff here is a brilliant first-year medical student. He's got all the right stuff.  But to be honest, let me warn you; you'll likely feel worse from his treatment. You'll just have to trust us. I'll be there watching." (This is when you ask to use the washroom and leave the building.)

This is the same Joe Biden, the geo-political surgeon, who recommended slicing Iraq into three parts.

Biden predicts "a generated crisis" (as in singular) on the model of the Cuban Missile Crisis.  After the Bay of Pigs fiasco, Khrushchev perceived Kennedy as weak and sought to take advantage of him.

The perception of weak leadership has, throughout history, often preceded the initiative of aggressors.  Biden admitted that our enemies will perceive Obama as weak.   

He also displayed an outdated perception of international aggression and crisis management. He should know better, since he's "forgotten more about foreign policy than most of my colleagues know."

Biden knows that (1) several of our, let's call them potential scenario initiators, talk among themselves: for example, Putin, Chavez and Ahmadinejad.  And, that (2) each has displayed the ability to leverage surrogate potential scenario initiators to further their aggression: Putin - Georgia's South Ossetian separatists; Chavez - the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC); and Ahmadinejad - Hamas & Hezbollah. 

If you were they, wouldn't you coordinate several near simultaneous crises to wreak maximum disorder on a fledgling Obama administration? 

Here how that could play out:  We wake up one month and FARC has taken over the American Embassy in Caracas. Putin has troops massed on the Russian border with the Ukraine, or perhaps one or more of the Baltic States, threatening invasion for some trumped-up reason. Hamas and Hezbollah have launched heavy missile attacks against Israel.  Unidentified persons have blown up the American Embassy in Cairo. And, for good measure, North Korean commandos have ambushed and killed a small patrol of U.S. soldiers along the DMZ, on the South Korean side.

That's five potential scenario initiations in quick succession, and doesn't include the wild card of terrorist attacks in the U.S.  (NYPost columnist and former Army Colonel Ralph Peters offers a longer list of potential flash points here.)

Now what, Joe?

Since the Cuban Missile Crisis, the bad actors of the globe have networked. But Joe still seems to await a unidirectional crisis. This is narrow gauge thinking on his part. (Of course, he can always take one crisis and divide it into several parts.)

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