Obama lead down to 4: 50-46. 8 point lead a week ago. Among those certain: a tie 41-41. was 45-38 obama a week ago. Regrettably, in state polls, Obama is still in good shape and spending very heavily where McCain needs to win -- Florida, Virginia in particular. We are closer in Colorado, Ohio and nevada. North Carolina, Missouri a tie, Indiana we are up a bit. All red states. I think Iowa and New Mexico are gone. So McCain cannot lose any other red state.Update -- Bill Tate writes:I would point out that today's Gallup daily tracking poll shows McCain closing to 2% among likely voters, 49-47%. The wider 6% margin that the media will, no doubt, report is among total registered voters ... not those who Gallup's past models show are actually going to vote.The intent behind it could be debatable, but Gallup has added a third, never used or tested, category of likely voters which skews the numbers toward Obama. (Likely Voters {Expanded})(Read Full Post)