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September 7, 2008
Zogby: McCain up 4
American Thinker Political Correspondent Rich Baehr doesn't think much of Zogby's accuracy and for good reason; he consistently undercounts Republicans and his methodology is sometimes suspect.
But even if you ignore his horserace numbers which show John McCain leading Barack Obama by nearly 4 points as of Friday, some of the breakdown in that poll spells big trouble for Obama.
The Ticket Horserace
Obama is losing badly among Catholic voters - by double digits now according to the pollster's findings. The significance is that Roman Catholics make up about 40% of the Pennsylvania vote, slightly less than that in Michigan and are strong percentages in other states of the old rust belt running from Michigan, down through the Great Lakes and up into Ohio.
"Clearly, Palin is helping the McCain ticket. She has high favorability numbers, and has unified the Republican Party. The striking thing here in this poll is that McCain has pulled ahead among Catholics by double-digits. On the other hand, Palin is not helping with likely voting women who are not aligned with either political party. The undecided independent women voters decreased this week from 15% to 7%, but those women went to Obama. Palin is also helping among men, conservatives, notably with suburban and rural voters, and with frequent Wal-Mart shoppers, who tend to be "values" voters who like a good value for their money."
All of this means that Obama may have to start playing defense in states like Michigan and Pennsylvania - a turn of events that bodes well for McCain's candidacy. The more Obama has to defend the fewer resources he can devote to trying to flip states like Virginia and Colorado.
And I don't think we've seen the full effect of McCain's convention bounce yet. Expect a couple of more points added on to McCain's overall numbers by mid-week. It will not be the 8-10 point bump Obama got that is traditionally the result of polling after a party's convention. But as long as it remains a close race, people will be questioning Obama's abilities and experience - exactly what the McCain campaign wants the voters to do.