Tracking Polls show steady gain for Obama

The Rassmussen Daily Tracking Poll as well as the Gallup daily survey have shown a definite trend toward Barack Obama over recent days.

Today's Rasmussen poll has Obama maintaining a 6 point lead nationally - the same as yesterday. Gallup has Obama by 5 over McCain. The Rasmussen poll - a three day rolling average - has the first day after the debate included so it is probable that neither candidate gained or lost much as a result of Friday night's festivities.

Gallup has an
interesting study showing that debates have very little impact on the final outcome of the race over the last 50 years. You might recall that John Kerry supposedly bested George Bush in 2004 in all their debates yet lost the election. Other factors are much more important than the transient ups or downs that occur as a result of the debates.

John McCain needs another game changer. As the Rasmussen survey shows, 80% of voters now believe the economy is getting worse while an astonishing 89% believe the country is headed in the wrong direction. As we have said many times on this site, if the election turns on the economy, John McCain will be the likely loser. If the election comes down to experience and foriegn policy cred, McCain could pull out a victory. Right now, with the Wall Street crisis, Americans are concentrating on the economy.

Might that change in the coming days if the bailout package passes?

If everything calms down following the bailout - a distinct possibility - John McCain should start narrowing the gap with Obama once again. The question will be is there enough time for him to catch Obama in some crucial states? I think McCain is close enough in many states that a judicious use of his time and resources could bring him back in states like PA, MI, VA, and CO. He may have to concede a state like New Mexico in order to try and win a state like New Hampshire. There probably isn't the time or money to fight Bill Richardson's political machine in NM while McCain is very popular in New Hampshire and is still very close to Obama in the Granite State.

Time will tell but despite Obama's momentum, McCain has proven time and time again that he can come back. He will have to do it again if he is to have a chance in 5 weeks when the nation goes to the polls.

Hat Tip: Nate Silver
The Rassmussen Daily Tracking Poll as well as the Gallup daily survey have shown a definite trend toward Barack Obama over recent days.

Today's Rasmussen poll has Obama maintaining a 6 point lead nationally - the same as yesterday. Gallup has Obama by 5 over McCain. The Rasmussen poll - a three day rolling average - has the first day after the debate included so it is probable that neither candidate gained or lost much as a result of Friday night's festivities.

Gallup has an
interesting study showing that debates have very little impact on the final outcome of the race over the last 50 years. You might recall that John Kerry supposedly bested George Bush in 2004 in all their debates yet lost the election. Other factors are much more important than the transient ups or downs that occur as a result of the debates.

John McCain needs another game changer. As the Rasmussen survey shows, 80% of voters now believe the economy is getting worse while an astonishing 89% believe the country is headed in the wrong direction. As we have said many times on this site, if the election turns on the economy, John McCain will be the likely loser. If the election comes down to experience and foriegn policy cred, McCain could pull out a victory. Right now, with the Wall Street crisis, Americans are concentrating on the economy.

Might that change in the coming days if the bailout package passes?

If everything calms down following the bailout - a distinct possibility - John McCain should start narrowing the gap with Obama once again. The question will be is there enough time for him to catch Obama in some crucial states? I think McCain is close enough in many states that a judicious use of his time and resources could bring him back in states like PA, MI, VA, and CO. He may have to concede a state like New Mexico in order to try and win a state like New Hampshire. There probably isn't the time or money to fight Bill Richardson's political machine in NM while McCain is very popular in New Hampshire and is still very close to Obama in the Granite State.

Time will tell but despite Obama's momentum, McCain has proven time and time again that he can come back. He will have to do it again if he is to have a chance in 5 weeks when the nation goes to the polls.

Hat Tip: Nate Silver