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September 29, 2008

Rasmussen Poll shows no change in race

Rick Moran
For you poll watchers out there, this Rassmussen daily survey could be seen as either an outlier in that all other polls show Obama pulling ahead or it could be viewed as a more accurate reflection of what is actually going on in the country at large.

Take your pick:

The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Monday shows Barack Obama attracting 50% of the vote while John McCain earns 45%. That's the fourth straight day Obama has been at 50% and the fourth straight day McCain has been at either 44% or 45% (see trends). Obama is now viewed favorably by 58% of voters, McCain by 55%.

Obama leads by fifteen points among women but trails by six among men. Obama and McCain are essentially even among White Women, a constituency that George W. Bush won by eleven points four years ago. Obama is now supported by 12% of Republicans, McCain by 11% of Democrats. For most of the year, McCain enjoyed more crossover support than Obama.

Some of those internal numbers are worrisome - McCain seems to be falling among white women as compared to just a couple of weeks ago - but overall, I find this poll to probably be the best news McCain has gotten since before the financial meltdown.

The fact that  the numbers have been so consistent reflects a wait and see attitude by the voter. They aren't being panicked into voting for Obama nor did they swallow the post debate spin about the Democrat. As I have mentioned before, let's wait and see what happens to Obama's numbers once this bailout package is passed by Congress and the threat of financial meltdown fades into the background of the campaign. My sense is McCain will start coming back when that happens.

Whether he has the time to pull out a victory once his numbers start rising again will be the biggest question left to answer about this campaign.




Posted at 11:54 AM | Email | | | Share Share
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