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August 10, 2008 Obama and the Youth VoteNate Silver at the excellent election blog 538 has an interesting Op-Ed in the New York Post that makes the case that the key to an Obama victory may very well be the under 30 vote and why this time, unlike in past elections, younger voters may turn out in much greater numbers this giving the Democratic candidate a big win. The key is, Obama speaks their language - and markets to them as their other favorite products are sold:
The younger voter could spell the difference in at least a half dozen states including Virginia, Georgia, North Carolina, Nevada, Colorado, and Montana. And it will be issues like the environment and perhaps even gay rights that could goose the turnout of this age group and give Obama a landslide victory
Interesting that Nate doesn't mention the blowback from Obama pushing gay rights. It would almost certainly motivate the evangelical right to come out and vote more than the McCain campaign could probably do on its own. In that sense, pushing the issue might be a wash or even give the GOP a slight advantage. But it is the environment and all the ancillary issues associated with it - drilling, alternative energy, climate change, even eco-friendly farming - that might drive this generation of young people to vote in the election. What we saw in the Democratic primaries were millions of new voters coming into the process for the first time as a result of Obama's candidacy. Historically, these voters never show up when the general election rolls around. You may recall in 2004 the tens of millions of dollars spent in youth outreach on MTV and "Rock The Vote" registration efforts that barely moved the young's apathy meter when the November election occurred. Will it be different this time? Obama is counting on it. Hat Tip: Ed Lasky |
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