The Trip that Did Not Deliver

With the major media in full swoon mode -- every network anchor covering the Obama trip, and only one reporter following John McCain to New Hampshire Monday night, the polls should be moving strongly for Obama.That was the expectation of savvy political analysts such as Nat Silver of the great fivethirtyeight.com web site: another Obama boomlet was in progress, and the results would soon  show up in the polls. When the Gallup 3 day tracking poll showed a big surge for Obama on Monday (opening up a 6 point lead, after a very strong poll day on Sunday), Silver was certain the expected Obama surge was in fact occurring. But Gallup was out of step with Rasmussen, whose 3 day tracking showed Obama at his lowest level since the primary season ended, in a virtual tied race (one point Oabma lead). Today, the Gallup Obama boomlet is gone (lead down to 3) and Rasmussen is a tie.  Then throw in some decent state poll numbers for McCain: plus 10 in Ohio (Rasmussen), plus 11 in...(Read Full Post)

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