July 23, 2008

The Achilles Heel of global warming theory

Jerome J. Schmitt
The scientific and mathematical details of Viscount Monckton's paper may be beyond the layman; however this paragraph near the end stands out and is comprehendible to all:

"It is of no little significance that the IPCC's value for the coefficient in the CO2 forcing equation depends on only one paper in the literature; that its values for the feedbacks that it believes account for two-thirds of humankind's effect on global temperatures are likewise taken from only one paper; and that its implicit value of the crucial parameter κ depends upon only two papers, one of which had been written by a lead author of the chapter in question, and neither of which provides any theoretical or empirical justification for a value as high as that which the IPCC adopted." (Emphasis Added)

So despite supporting thousands of scientists with billions of dollars every year to study "Climate Change", the values used as input data for the three critical computer-numerical parameters governing Al Gore's "Consensus Model" of the "Green-House Effect" are very, very thinly sourced -- probably "cherry-picked" -- and thus of highly suspect reliability. Even though the IPCC's diagnosis of the patient is supposedly alarming, in effect, no second opinions were sought to double-check whether "the planet has a fever".

Comments

I highly recommend you read "The essence of Chaos" by Edward Lorentz. He explains how important the measurement of initial values like those mentioned here are so important and why computer models can probably never predict changes in the atmosphere correctly.

When is the promotion of Global Warming going to stop?
The public doesn't have enough sense to care!

Don't you realize we're dealing with the greatest threat humankind has ever faced!?! Formulas, equations, math...There's no time for this! It's the end of the world!!!

Monckton is a crackpot.

See here, here, here, etc.

Art, the promotion of global warming will stop when WE QUIT ELECTING COMPLETE IDIOTS TO CONGRESS!

It's all PIPO: Pessimism in, pessimism out.

Mr. Bueche:
Reading your responce to what is a sound observation worthy of re-visting this hype up warming issue takes me back to pre school.
CHICKEN LITTLE!

I'll never forget one of my classes in Numerical Analysis taught by a young disciple of the McNamara Whiz Kid school of warfare.

He was lecturing a group of Naval Aviators on weapons effectiveness and asserting that it could be computed to a high degree of accuacy using the formulae he postulated--ASSUMING THE CORRECT ASSUMPTIONS were accounted for. We all nodded, and agreed that the assumptions could drive any mathematical forumla. One wag asked where you find and verify those assumptions in the absence of reliable data? He did admit that was the hard part.

Global warming research has become a cash cow for scientists. Too many scientists have become grant junkies - and the bureaucrats are pushing global warming research.

The root problem with computer modeling is initial conditions. The tiniest error at the outset dooms the conclusions to the trash heap. However, it is quite easy to select (cherry pick) initial conditions to guarantee the outcome. This might explain why the IPCC grudgingly had to admit that the last decade has seen a gradual cooling of the mean earth temperature, not an increase. (Their models were preset to produce the desired outcome.) If this cooling continues, then we are probably going to experience what is referred to as the 'Maunder Minimum'. We have much more to fear from continued temperature decline than an increase. By the way, CO2 is not a poisonous gas. Without it nothing green grows.

What is of real interest with AGW is:
1. the uncritical, even irrational, acceptance of what is a mere hypothesis that
purports to explain
2. a phenomenon that is not at all unusual(a slight increase in earth temperature).
Admittedly, the Mann "hockey stick" indicated an extreme rise in temperature but the "hockey stick" was soon shown to be false.
and
3. radical even revolutionary "solutions" proposed to the problem without any debate or concern for their unintended consequences.

Thinking back, we have seen this same M.O. for environmentalism for 40 years however. We need to get wise to it.

There is little need for an Achilles Heel, CAGW lacks a more important element; the warming. Last winter swamped all previous warming with a .6 C drop overall. If next winter is simply static we will be in a statistical cooling period that even Al Gore cannot deny. He will anyhow. What a puke.

The whole Global Warming debate is a red herring, a feint to distract us form the upper-cut coming. Don't you people remember that annoying uncle that we all had to put up with when we were children? The one who would hold up his left hand and say "Watch the hand, watch the hand!", and then hit you with his other hand. Don't be suckered. Now is the time to strike while they think we are distracted by the Global Warming feint. We need to pressure our political class (God help us, what a bunch of bozos)to immediately open our off-shore areas to drilling and cut through the governmental red tape to get nuclear reactors on line yesterday. Don't tell me that our great country is helpless to solve this problem. The MSM has spent the last 40 years trying to convince Americans that we are weak. Rise up and roar! Show the world and our own political elite that we are still a strong, vital, dynamic people who can creatively solve our current energy crisis. The American Spirit is a light for all people who hope for a better life. We are the reality that their hope is not mis-placed or misbegotten. We can continue in greatness.

@ David Bueche

... and do not forget that somewhere a child will be devastated. There is just no time for any division. We must have unity NOW!

If you are not moving forward...
You are moving backwards!

Life (with the Earth) is dynamic ...

(Don't be stupid, be a smarty...
Nuke the eviro-nazi's party!)

As the man said, "Garbage in - Gospel out".

The financial models I write and have written are subject to the same issues as climate models. The initial assumptions and other variables control the result.

The question for management is always what do you want to see? We can make the model produce the desired result and it can all sound so reasonable and logical.

Buzz G. gets it & explained so I won't replicate his response.

Only a horse farm has more dumb posts and manure. That swirling chunk of CO2 and other parts of global warming called Hurricane Dolly was missed by the base of the extremist Republican and Christian ecological experts as it was most boldly predicted by me in this web and others. But, y'all did get the Mexicans and Texans to hate your guts along with Roman Catholics and Muslims. Maybe if American Thinker would only post a global warming story only 2 days out of 7, our little fence materials could get a fresh perspective or breath.

The backlash of the scientific community is happening despite the lack of exposure on the liberal mass media.

The energy crisis in the US has shown us that the vast majority of people know what's important. You have the masses incorrectly believing that CO2 is driving tempature increase, but 4 dollar a gallon gas, has the same masses supporting lifting bans on oil drilling in the US. How could that happen if they believed Gore.

I would also like to add that Gore has laid out a ten year plan to get the US completely on wind and solar to meet our electricity needs. Then we can start on solving the other problems. The concern I have is that 2 1/2 years ago, Al said we had 10 years left before catastrophe. How can he propose anything short of absolute cessation of all industry? Did he or did he not predict widespread catastrophe?

The global warming bus is headed for a cliff, it's solar panels under a cloud of rebellion from a growing number of world scientists, important parts falling off from the beginning. Yet the loony driver Al Bore keeps his foot pressed to the floor while yelling the end is near, but I can save you. This bus was designed by the UN IPCC engineers and assembled at Kofe Annon UN general assembly plant and funded in the most part by US dollars. Also I've been told that the GPS guidance system was installed by the UN Oil For Food Co.

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