July 01, 2008

North Pole ice melting fear mongers strike out

Thomas Lifson
Kudos to John L. Daly, who has written a very interesting study of ice at the North Pole. Global Warmists are once again observing cyclical changes and declaring them "proof" of the dire effects of global warming.

Among the interesting pictures posted to this site is this one from 1987, when we were supposed to be worried about global cooling:

NP ice 1987
HMS Superb, USS Billfish, and USS Sea Devil in a North Pole rendezvous in 1987
(U.S. Navy Photo)

This was not exactly a harbinger of global warming, as this picture of unbroken ice at the North Pole three years later attests:

NP ice 1990`NP ice 1990
USS Hawkbill at the North Pole, Spring 1999. (US Navy Photo)

Daly explores the various factors influencing ice at the North Pole. It is accessible to laymen like me. His conclusions:

...both the extent and thickness of Arctic sea ice is certainly subject to variation. But it would be a mistake to assume that a brief period during which the Arctic is in a thinning cycle is anything more than that - a cycle. We know from past history that it has been subject to earlier retreats....

Part of the problem lay in the fact that useful data on ice extent and thickness only dates from the 1950s, yet our temperature record from Jan Mayen Island at the edge of the Arctic shows that the Arctic was warmer during the 1930s than it was during the 1990s. Unfortunately there is no comprehensive ice data from the 1930s. Instead such data begins in the late 1950s, at a time when the Arctic was entering into the grip of a known cold spell. As that cold period ended, it is hardly surprising to find thinner ice during the latter warmer period. [....]

The limits on the thickness of Arctic ice are determined by how low the air temperature can get, and on how warm and fast-moving the subsurface water is. Air temperatures measured in the Arctic region show no recent warming, thus discounting the possibility that recent thinning of ice could be caused by atmospheric warming above the ice. Rather, the  thinning of ice in the 1990s is clearly associated with a warming of the sub-surface ocean, as shown by the SCICEX data, caused in whole or in part by the strong NAO [North Atlantic Oscillation -- ocean current change] increasing the flow rate of Atlantic water into the Arctic Ocean.

There is nothing in the data to suggest anything but natural cycles at work.

Hat tip: Michael Geer

Comments

Woods Hole Oceanographic Institute has reported that in 1999 massive volcanoes erupted 13,000 feet below the surface at the North Pole 1,100 miles in length. So if the ice is melting, do not blame me. I surely cannot produce as much heat and gas as those eruptions which were as big as those that buried Pompei.

These photos were fabricated in Carl Rove's bathtub!

What about the article last week of scientists' amazement at finding huge undersea arctic volcanoes, dating from 1999, and three times larger than they'd suspected? They reported what they'd found, but did not link it to thinner arctic ice, nor did the latest thin-ice scare mention that there's more sea ice this year by a third at the pole than there was this time last year.

I don't even think the left believes this except the low order minions. The elite are merely using all this as part of the scheme to enslave us to the state.
Harry Reid's comments today were just such pandering.

I'm really thinking that most of the melting ice is due to all the extra yabbering of those who know all -- the beyond science, beyond reproach, beyond humanity!! crowd, of exalted climate preachers -- who have done more to verify the existence of Eric Hoffer's True Believer than Stalin himself!!

I'm really thinking that most of the melting ice is due to all the extra yabbering of those who know all -- the beyond science, beyond reproach, beyond humanity!! crowd, of exalted climate preachers -- who have done an incredible job of authenticating the overwhelming existence of Eric Hoffer's True Believer!!

I believe it was the USS Skate that first surfaced at the geographic North Pole 17 March 1959. The ice was a few feet thick.

I have a theory that the earth is warming. It is from all the hot air, and gases emitted from Washington DC and the UN building in NY. If we want to save the human race, we should start by cleaning those places up. They are rather toxic.

Whoops! Another inconvenient truth. Anyone want to place a bet on the odds of the MSM retracting their scare stories about the Artic ice melt?

I really enjoy the site but FYI the smart filter used by my employer is blocking your top and side ad banners as Spyware/malicious sites. Please look into this as it will significantly deter return visits.

If the creators of such predictions paid with their lives for missing their mark, things would becom a lot clearer.

Who was the dope from NASA who predicted this event?

Most Arctic ice is quite thin, as any of these photos show. In the winter it's probably less than 6 feet thick, except where the icebergs are. As the real scientists stated last year, tides, currents and winds were responsible for what 'melting' there was. Ignorance took care of the rest.

Hmmm...I actually posted that article on the last thread about this topic. But that's okay, I guess no one read my post.

And Anonymous is correct about the Skate, as the article pointed out.

A group of scientists have done a 10yr study with robots floating in the oceans and found that the oceans have dropped in temperature. Another group of scientists did a 5 year study with weather balloons at different heights and have found that the temperature has dropped. There has not been sun spots for 11 years....so where's the global warming?

The earth is warming. we cannot argue with that evidence. In the 1600's they used to ice skate on the Thames River, and in the 1770's GW crossed the Delaware among large ice flows, which have not been seen in a very long time.

what gets me is the arrogance of mankind to believe that we can have any impact or have had any impact to this event. we cant even predict with any certainty where a hurrican will make land fall or when the next tornado will form.

That said, as a matter of survival we should study the impacts and learn ways to deal with it. IT may be a matter of survival. then again, shifting of the plates, some volcanic erruptions, or perhaps a slight warble of the earths access, and wha-la problem solved.

There's visual evidence from Mars Global Surveyor that the Martian poles are diminishing. The shrinking cap leaves a dark ring where it once was. A warmer Sun is also whipping up the atmosphere of Jupiter into more swirling mega-storms. All polar caps everywhere melt back naturally in their summer cycles. Ever hear of the 'Midnight Sun' phenomena above the Artic Circle? Constant solar radiation. It's why blonde Finns have such great tans this time of year. Seasonal axial tilt. Now massive undersea volcanoes are in the mix? Sacre Merde! The nerve of this hostile planet! Not funny earth dude!
It would be in all our best interests if cuddly carnivorous Polar Bears took advantage of the open melt water, swam across to ANWR, ran down the Porcupine Caribou Herd and ate them. (Its what they do.) It happens all the time...with or without Congressional approval.
Nature can and will flush us like insignificant bugs on a dirty truck windshield. Its ALL about the tough little birdies (evolved ex- dinosaurs anyone?)...not us. Darwin's BIG law is simple... change, adapt, or die. Whining helps nothing...whining weaklings are the first over the big cliff at the end of the world.

erm, 1999 is more than three years later than 1987.

Hmmm... Has anyone seen Al Gore lately?

Submarines at North Pole - Meaningless. Two photos of submarines at the North Pole... surrounded by ICE. Yes, the ice at the North Pole has long been thin enough that it would break up or submarines surface right through it. That's not what scientists are predicting might happen this year (and WILL happen within the next decade or so). Show us a photo of a sturdy sail boat at the North Pole with no ice in sight anywhere on the horizon... THEN you can claim this has all happened before. Because THAT is what is being predicted. The ice will melt. Disappear. Be no longer present. Unlike those photos of submarines surrounded by ice.

Volcanos melting ice - Ridiculous. Take a Bic lighter and apply the flame directly to an ice cube for ten seconds. You will be able to see visible melting. Take the same Bic lighter and apply it to a wide shallow pan of water with another ice cube floating in it for the same ten seconds... you won't see any visible melting, even if you put the flame directly below the ice cube. Nor will that ice cube melt noticably faster than if you hadn't used the lighter at all. This mimics the situation at the North Pole. Water disperses heat. The temperature of the arctic ocean is actually lowest in the MIDDLE... the bottom is warmed by geothermal activity and the top by the sun, but neither of these forces is sufficient to reach the 'other side' of the ocean. Heat from these undersea volcanos never reaches the surface. It is dispersed throughout the water and equalized long before it makes it topside. Not only did volcanos not cause the record melting seen last year... they didn't cause ANY melting.

@Condrad
"Volcanos melting ice - Ridiculous." I don't suppose it's occurred to you that comparing volcanoes to a bic lighter is just a tad rediculous.
And I suppose that you are implying that man has a greater effect on the Arctic Ice Cap than the sun or volcanoes. That's doesn't strike you as a just a wee bit silly?

Regarding the post by Ranger Joe...

There lies the rub: how can the environmentalists link anthropogenic global warming here on earth to that which Mars is experiencing? Perhaps it is from the Mars rovers that we are sending over there?

I have to cite the sheer arrogance and self-important narcissism of humans to believe that we have such an effect on our environment and are ruining the Planet. The Planet has been in existence for around 4 billion years. Humans have been on the Planet for 50 to 100 thousands years, in which time we've been involved in heavy industry for around 100 to 150 years.

Outside of the Al Gores of the world citing funny "science" and using the Global Warming boondoggle to dupe simple people so that they can line their pockets, who would think that little old us could have any effect on something as big and complex as our Planet and eco-systems?

"People used to skate on the ice on the Thames River..." Yeah, so what?! People used to grow food in Greenland on land now under ice; do I win?

Your anecdotal evidence does not prove anything any more than mine does! If you want to argue this issue, please bring FACTS and DATA, not anecdotes and scare stories. Oh wait, you say we've only been collecting real factual data from the north pole since the fifties; and it's not enough to work with yet??? Well then, that must mean we really DON'T KNOW what is NORMAL at the north pole do we? We are in a grand weather cycle that includes an overall warming trend that goes back 10,000 years, with occasional cooling periods thrown in. Did you get that; TEN THOUSAND YEARS!!! Boy, those cave men sure were hard on the environment, weren't they?

So a series of volcanic eruptions in the Mt St Helen range CAN NOT transfer significant amounts of heat to the surface? GW generally is speaking about tiny fractions of a degree. But at this site, it is IMPOSSIBLE for volcanoes to melt ice? Convection has been suspended? Absolute declarations like that are just not credible. Here's a proposition; let's see how cold the upcoming winter is. Once we book the temps for '09 we will decide. If it's warmer than average.... cap and trade, full bore. But what if it is colder than average as '08 was? Any warmists want to bet on that?

Ed, the 14 million km^3 Arctic Ocean wouldn't exactly fit in a kitchen pan either. Indeed, the Bic vastly OVERSTATES the power of the volcano in that analogy.

As to 'implications'... the order would be sunlight > man > volcanoes. Of course, sunlight isn't new and levels haven't changed significantly in the past thousand years. CO2 produced by humans HAS.

Perspective-use it or lose it. It is very hot here in Texas, except when it is cold. Maybe someone can create a film from the perspective of an out-of-body experience where the viewer slowly rises from a spot on Earth and has the ability to see more and more of the big planet they live on. Seque as they rise to still shots with data showing distance from ground and to horizon. These still shots with data should contain a point of reference easily understood so that the data is digestible. This reference point could be something like a football field or 6' men stacked. When point of view has risen high enough to view complete planet, digitally enhance image of planet to show seasonal temp gradiations. Red for heat and blue for cool. Then time lapse available temp data for last 200 years. Switch data to represent water levels rising and falling. Switch data to green growth and desert encroachment. You can see the picture. Now continue the rising of the point of view to the level of the moons orbit path. Show same digitized data from this farther perspective. Move POV to distance of nearest planet. This short primer should given even the Chicken Little greenies a taste of perspective that goes a little farther than their nose.

Ed, the 14 million km^3 Arctic Ocean wouldn't exactly fit in a kitchen pan either. Indeed, the Bic vastly OVERSTATES the power of the volcano in that analogy.

As to 'implications'... the order would be sunlight > man > volcanoes. Of course, sunlight isn't new and levels haven't changed significantly in the past thousand years. CO2 produced by humans HAS.

Hey Conrad, check the date today. If you jump in that sailboat and head on up to the pole you ought to get there just in time to snap some great shots of all that open water. If you e-mail them back I'm sure the folks at AT would be glad to post them, and we could have a nice discussion of the accuracy of the predictions of the AGW loons.

Comrade Conrad! Do I know you? Are you my brother-in- law? I conclude from your learned sophistry that you have an advanced degree. If you freeze your tepid red Kool Aid, you'll get yummy popsicles! One of the major hidden factors of random climate forcing is a vast aerosol soot cloud from China. Al Gore's finance guys, and future rulers of Klingon earth.
DGree3...yes!...keeping it real!...take it further out to gravity waves from the galactic core's huge black hole. It's theorized they acoustically vibrate the sun like a struck temple gong. (GONG not BONG Conrad) Jupiter's gravity is so powerful, its tidal forces tug at the whole solar system. Its all measureable. If you could observe the sun from another star, there would be direct evidence to the alien astronomers that it had planets, by the way it predictably wiggles and wobbles against the stellar background... AND... its variable temperature and luminosity would be evident. Keep thinking and learning...there's new raw scientific data everyday from everywhere. Pretty cool,huh?
P.S. NASA Solar Physicists have declared the sun officially dormant. Sunspot Cycle 24 is not kicking in. The 'Little Ice Age' (crop failure and famine in Old Europe) was connected to a dormant sun...preceded by two centuries of fertile warming. Its on the record. How do the PC geniuses spin that?

If we could collect all of the hot air expelled by leftist over the past decade in their "global warming garbage", there would be sufficient heat to warm 3/4 of the homes in the US for a year. What a much better use of their "efforts".

Kudos to all of you. This is the most thoughtful, informed debate--on both sides--that I've come across regarding this issue. I guess the one question I have is, even if there isn't global warming, won't conservation measures help us anyway by reducing reliance on foreign oil and lowering people's energy bills? Right or wrong, this country is better off with more 50 mpg hybrids and fewer 5 mpg Hummers. $.02

Conservation measures are good but they're only building those Hybrids because of the "oil shortage" and the cost, not because of "global warming".
I think this farce has gone on long enough when is the truth going to be told?

In my, admittedly, limited knowledge of global warming, I would think that while the sea ice in the arctic may be subject to the cyclic argument used in the article, there appears to be other evidence such as the rapid deterioration of glaciers further south. These ice flows have been receding for quite a while at an alarming rate, and in my mind is evidence of some for of environmental change in the region.

I have seen a number of photos of the icebergs some years back and the same ones today. Believe me, they are melting, no matter what the cause may be..ask any white bear what is going on...but stick your head in a hole and pretend nothing changing.

They say cattle flatulance causes global warming as much as autos. Well that must be how the dinasours disappeared. Dinasour flatulance was their demise.

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