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July 19, 2008 Maliki Embraces Obama Timetable for WithdrawalIraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki told a German newsmagazine that he supported the idea of American troops leaving Iraq within the 16 month time frame proposed by Barack Obama. Maliki said "U.S. presidential candidate Barack Obama talks about 16 months. That, we think, would be the right timeframe for a withdrawal, with the possibility of slight changes." This is after Maliki agreed with President Bush in a conference call earlier in the week on a "time horizon" for meeting "aspirational goals" for reducing U.S. forces in Iraq. So what gives? What's Maliki's game? Maliki is running for office. With elections scheduled for October, there is little doubt that he wishes to forestall any move by his rival, Moqtada al-Sadr, to make hay out of Maliki's close association with the occupation. In short, he is moving to shore up his right (nationalistic) flank by being seen as eager for the Americans to leave. As the need for American troops to stay in Iraq lessens, the Iraqi people will be more anxious for us to go. Candidates who recognize that political reality will probably do well in the elections. Maliki's Shia brethren are split on the issue of the occupation with a large segment supporting al-Sadr's call for our immediate withdrawal and a slightly larger faction who recognize the reality of the occupation but want most of us out as soon as it is safe to go. It is these voters that Maliki is appealing to. The bitter enders who support al-Sadr will never win a majority unless they can convince many of the realists that we will never go and that politicians like Maliki are encouraging us to stay. Hence, Maliki's two step on withdrawal; being obtuse with Bush while pronouncing Obama's specific proposal acceptable. He doesn't want to offend Bush/McCain but for political reasons finds it desirable to pander to those Shias who are worried about the US overstaying its welcome. The coalition of Shia parties that currently govern Iraq will no doubt win a majority again in October, although it will probably be reduced due to increased Sunni participation in the electoral process as well as a hopefully better showing by the non-sectarian, secular parties. This makes it all the more important for Maliki to be seen as standing up to the Americans among his co-religionists. Eliminating al-Sadr as a rival - especially in the south - will help him consolidate his position and in the end, be the best we can hope for as far as a political outcome in Iraq. |
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Comments
So basically Obama is right again.
Posted by: SallyM | July 19, 2008 10:53 AM
The topic seems to be a multi headed snake.
Widthdrawal can happen because WE WON.
The big question is how this will be played in the media.
US widthdrawals in triumph with Al Queda dead and Iraq on it's way to a bright future.
US must lose at all costs.
Posted by: American Thinker Fan | July 19, 2008 10:58 AM
Two things come to mind:
1) The word "ingrate";
2) Be careful what you wish for Mr. Maliki - I don't think president Obama will come back if you change your mind in month 17...
Posted by: David Bueche | July 19, 2008 11:02 AM
I think this signals the end for McCain. Obama just has too much charisma for Mc Cain to overcome, just like Clinton and Kennedy rode in on a wave of charisma.
Posted by: philnk | July 19, 2008 11:19 AM
So is this what Maliki really said? Or will we get another correction, as we did before?
Sally M,
Just like Obama, Maliki is a politician and will say and do whatever it takes to get re-elected. Let's see what he says after the Iraqi election.
Posted by: Diane | July 19, 2008 12:10 PM
al-Maliki is in a position to be political like this, only because of the success of the surge.
Had we taken the Big 0's advice, he wouldn't have the luxury of being in this position ... or any position of power ... that is, if he would still be alive at all.
Therefore, despite al-Maliki's appearance of concurrence with the Big 0, the Big 0 was NOT right about Iraq. Not at all.
Posted by: Rich Casebolt | July 19, 2008 12:13 PM
Typical political move by a politician trying to get elected. Maliki going up for election before the U.S.
elections occur,so he's playing both sides.
We've won the war and draw down was going to happen anyway you look at it. Obama hasn't been right about squat, he would had us quit before we won if he had his way.
Posted by: HarveyW | July 19, 2008 12:35 PM
Well isn't that special. Maybe Obama does walk on water after all. This ain't good, folks. Obama's international creds have now climbed to the top of the charts. No one's going to pay attention to internal Iraqi politics. Good grief - is this guy lucky, or what?
Posted by: George S | July 19, 2008 07:22 PM
McCain needs to play this to his advantage.
1) The surge has worked, Iraq's leadership (confident)believes its nearing time for the USA to leave.
2)Maliki/Bush have been in discussion about troop withdrawal.
3) Maliki believes 16 months with some adjustment may be possible.
4)The White house (under McCain) will continue to work ( as it's now beginning too) to move forward on the complete turnover of power and troop withdrawal.
5)Iraq has become a free democracy with a bright future. They will continue to have the support of the free world as they develop.
Posted by: j | July 20, 2008 02:10 AM
Senator Obama should take the Iraqi prime minister endorsement with reserve.The withdrawal of the US troops in Iraq can also lead to chaos, Shiites and Sunnis will continu to kill each other and the destruction will continu. Like the Massai of Kenya say "When two elephants fight, it's the grass that suffers the most"
guy
Posted by: Guy Blaise | July 20, 2008 10:23 AM
When Maliki and Obama meet this week, it's now highly likely they will discuss setting some kind of timetable for U.S. withdrawal. Maliki has been separately negotiating with Bush to get some sort of "time horizon," even before his statement to Der Spiegel. And unlike Bush, Obama will be eager to define one.
That leaves McCain out of the loop, and out in the cold. He could have gotten out in front of this issue at numerous times in his campaign for the Presidency, by himself raising and even welcoming the possibility that the Iraqi government might desire to speed up U.S. withdrawal once the surge produced concrete results. But he didn't.
McCain didn't even have a position on the "time horizon" that Maliki has been trying to get Bush to sign up to.
Byron York, in the National Review Online, just described this as Obama hitting the McCain campaign with a "body blow" (his words). He's not trying to spin away what happened. It's bad news for McCain.
Posted by: Steve L. | July 21, 2008 12:00 PM