Bad news for Dems: GDP Numbers Show Still No Recession (updated)

Patrick Casey
On July 12th of this year, just two and a half weeks ago, noted economist and Messiah Barack Obama stated to an adoring crowd in San Diego that the country is in a recession. Here's the quote, from an AP report on MSNBC, Obama's home network (Obama says ‘little doubt' country in recession):

SAN DIEGO - Barack Obama said Saturday there is "little doubt we've moved into recession," underscoring the country's need for a second economic stimulus package, swift steps to shore up the housing market and a long-term energy policy to reduce reliance on foreign oil imports.

That bold call was itself just two weeks removed from the release of the final GDP numbers for the first quarter of 2008, which showed a growth in GDP of 1.0%, revised upwards from previous estimates of 0.9%.

The advanced estimate for the second quarter of 2008 was just released at 8:30am this morning, and it comes in at a surprisingly strong 1.9%. Whoops -- still no recession!

That's stunning when one considers the fact that the housing and credit 'crisises', soaring energy and food prices, and rising unemployment hit the economy full force during this quarter.

It just goes to show you that while the underlying economic metrics might be wounded, the overall economy is still hanging in there. Not that the American public would have any idea about that. For the drive-by media, it's all recession, all the time.

As a recession is defined as two straight quarters of negative GDP growth, and slowing GDP growth apparently bottomed out in the fourth quarter of last year at a positive 0.6%, it looks as if we might avoid a real recession - we seem to be on an upward growth curve now.

Look for the Democrats and the drive-by media to continue to insist that the country is in a recession - if not a depression, since that is a vital component to their "President Obama to the rescue" storyline.

Perhaps Barack Obama will come out and state that the bad economic news being constantly reported by the media can't be biased or wrong  and at the very least the country is in a mental recession, which is just as bad as a real one.

Oh wait, someone already tried saying that...

Update: Economy Bottomed Out in Fourth Quarter 2007

The release of the second quarter 2008 GDP numbers was accompanied by revisions to the GDP figures from 2005-2007. From those revisions, based upon newly available data, it appears that the economy did contract during one quarter - the fourth quarter of 2007. The previous GDP number for that quarter was a positive growth of 0.6%. The new data shows that there was, in actuality, a slight contraction of GDP during that quarter - a negative 0.2%.

From that new data, it appears that the economy bottomed out last year. The two subsequent quarters since then have seen a slowly rising growth curve established - first quarter 2008 saw a revised positive 0.9% growth, and the just released second quarter GDP rose at a positive 1.9%. Slow, but moving in the right direction - away from a real recession.

On July 12th of this year, just two and a half weeks ago, noted economist and Messiah Barack Obama stated to an adoring crowd in San Diego that the country is in a recession. Here's the quote, from an AP report on MSNBC, Obama's home network (Obama says ‘little doubt' country in recession):

SAN DIEGO - Barack Obama said Saturday there is "little doubt we've moved into recession," underscoring the country's need for a second economic stimulus package, swift steps to shore up the housing market and a long-term energy policy to reduce reliance on foreign oil imports.

That bold call was itself just two weeks removed from the release of the final GDP numbers for the first quarter of 2008, which showed a growth in GDP of 1.0%, revised upwards from previous estimates of 0.9%.

The advanced estimate for the second quarter of 2008 was just released at 8:30am this morning, and it comes in at a surprisingly strong 1.9%. Whoops -- still no recession!

That's stunning when one considers the fact that the housing and credit 'crisises', soaring energy and food prices, and rising unemployment hit the economy full force during this quarter.

It just goes to show you that while the underlying economic metrics might be wounded, the overall economy is still hanging in there. Not that the American public would have any idea about that. For the drive-by media, it's all recession, all the time.

As a recession is defined as two straight quarters of negative GDP growth, and slowing GDP growth apparently bottomed out in the fourth quarter of last year at a positive 0.6%, it looks as if we might avoid a real recession - we seem to be on an upward growth curve now.

Look for the Democrats and the drive-by media to continue to insist that the country is in a recession - if not a depression, since that is a vital component to their "President Obama to the rescue" storyline.

Perhaps Barack Obama will come out and state that the bad economic news being constantly reported by the media can't be biased or wrong  and at the very least the country is in a mental recession, which is just as bad as a real one.

Oh wait, someone already tried saying that...

Update: Economy Bottomed Out in Fourth Quarter 2007

The release of the second quarter 2008 GDP numbers was accompanied by revisions to the GDP figures from 2005-2007. From those revisions, based upon newly available data, it appears that the economy did contract during one quarter - the fourth quarter of 2007. The previous GDP number for that quarter was a positive growth of 0.6%. The new data shows that there was, in actuality, a slight contraction of GDP during that quarter - a negative 0.2%.

From that new data, it appears that the economy bottomed out last year. The two subsequent quarters since then have seen a slowly rising growth curve established - first quarter 2008 saw a revised positive 0.9% growth, and the just released second quarter GDP rose at a positive 1.9%. Slow, but moving in the right direction - away from a real recession.