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July 07, 2008 About That Democratic 'Unity'It seems that despite the media-targeted love-fest in Unity, New Hampshire a week and a half ago, the Hillary-Obama marriage of convenience hasn't really taken off. CNN posted the following story on it's website on Saturday: Poll: Some Clinton supporters still not embracing Obama. And the Wall Street Journal posted its own take this morning, concentrating more on Hillary's financial backers: Obama Faces Resistance From Top Supporters of Clinton. The title of the CNN piece downplays the findings of Friday's CNN/Opinion Dynamics poll. It's not just "some" Hillary supporters who are not climbing aboard Obama's bus -- it's nearly half (43%) who would still rather see Hillary as the nominee, and the number is trending up:
This number is going to get worse for Obama because of one simple fact -- and it's not the "sexist treatment of Hillary" anger that we've heard so much about. Obama became popular, and 'won' the nomination (so far), because he took positions that were consistently to the left of Hillary Clinton. Those positions -- on such things as FISA and the Iraq War -- were the bait that lured his supporters in. As Obama bails out of his promises to the Left (the media calls it "tacking to the center"), he is becoming virtually indistinguishable from the hated Hillary -- one of the main targets of his "change" message. This is only going to further enrage Hillary's base, and disappoint Obama's. The Wall Street Journal article examines Hillary's monetary supporters, using the "look at what I do, not at what I say" method. And what the WSJ finds is pretty striking:
It will be interesting to see what those fund-raising numbers are for June. The CNN poll, taken at the beginning of July, seems to indicate that rank-and-file dissatisfaction is growing among former Hillary supporters. Let's see if that trend is true with her donors. Remember, if Obama gets in he's probably in for eight years -- by which time the possibility of a Hillary Presidency could be long past it's prime. One other thing to keep in mind, and for this we have to first go back to the 2004 Presidential race between President Bush and John Kerry. During that campaign, Evan Thomas of Newsweek infamously said that the media bias towards John Kerry was worth about 15% in the polls. It's clear that Barack Obama is a vastly superior candidate to John Kerry, and the media bias in favor of him makes any comparison to their affection towards Kerry look like a bad joke. I'd be curious to know what Thomas believes the current pro-Obama bias in the media is worth to the candidate: 20%, 25%? With most responsible polls (not the outliers) now showing Obama with a lead of anywhere between 4%-8% (Gallup, Rasmussen), this is not an inconsequential question. If the New York Times editorial from July 4th (New and Not Improved) is any indicator, important Obama promoters in the media are beginning to get quite upset. And these are the same promoters who remained staunchly pro-Kerry throughout the 2004 campaign. Even a slight crack in the solidarity of the pro-Obama elites could have a significant affect on the outcome of this election. And if there's one thing the drive-by media loves to do, it's to take down Messiahs. We shall see if they are reluctant to do so now, since He is one of their own making.
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Which suggests that an August surprise is waiting at the Dem convention. Hillary suspended her campaign, she did not give up! Never underestimate your enemy.
As Obama "refines" his positions to be more centerist, the ultra left is going to interpret correctly that they have been used and thrown under the bus yet again. This is not some simple pro-Clinton people dissing Obama. Unlike the 2006 elections where the Dems promised the moon to the ultra left and anti-war left and then proceeded to renege on all their promises "after" the election, Obama is regening even "before" the Dem Convention. It will be interesting to see if these two groups will allow themselves to be made the fools by a Dem again. It's a matter of consistency, Hillary has been consistent whereas Obama has not. The big question is whether the ultra left and anti-war left are gullible enough to trust someone like Obama who changes his stances so quickly depending on which audience he speaks. How do they know which message he is actually going to perform? Is there some secret meeting he had with the ultra left or sent them notes like he did to Canada (NAFTA) to say I really didn't mean what I said, it was all for domestic consumption. Obama is as disingenuous with his speeches as Clinton was when he told people, he felt their pain.
Obama's only skill is his ability to talk and mesmerize his audience. We shall see how gullible the left really is.
Posted by: dscott | July 7, 2008 10:26 AM
Yet the alternative to Obama is to reelect the Party who has screwed up this Country. To me, it is unthinkable to vote for McCain during this election cycle. Despite Obama's lean toward the center, his proposals remain close to Mrs. Clinton's. "Liking" her better, is not a good enough reason to vote for the opposition party or sit out the vote. The election this year remains about The Supreme Court for me at least (I admire Justice Souter), and Obama is sure to balance the Court with More Souter style appointees where McCain will imbalance it.
Posted by: radical_Moderate | July 7, 2008 12:08 PM
It was a marriage of convenience alright.Mrs Clinton has worked for the presidency since college,and is'nt about to give up now.
Posted by: Will Becker | July 7, 2008 12:17 PM
The media is really downplaying the rift between the Obama and McCain camps. Now that Obama is starting to sound more like Hillary(throwing the hard left under the bus)the rift between the two camps might get wose. Clinton supporters are adament about the election being stolen because the Fl. and Mi.were discounted.Meanwhile the Obama camp is trying to project an aura of invincibilty by renting the stadium in Denver.
Posted by: Spidey | July 7, 2008 01:35 PM
If the Clinton machine wants a crack at 2012 will they damage Obama pre election enough to make him a one to no term President. That is the question. Also if Obama gets creamed at the convention will it help Hillary's campaign debt problem?
Posted by: toad | July 7, 2008 02:03 PM
Radical,
The Supreme Court for me at least (I admire Justice Souter), and Obama is sure to balance the Court with More Souter style appointees where McCain will imbalance it.
I assume you mean that Obama will balance the Justices who interpret the Constitution as written, with new Justices who prefer to make new law out of whole cloth. It seems to me that 9 Justices who view the Constitution as the basis for our laws is far more preferable to a Justice who looks anywhere in the world to justify his ridiculous view on what should be.
Posted by: Don Hogan | July 7, 2008 04:41 PM
Remember, if Obama gets in he's probably in for eight years --
Jimmy Carter & Bush 41 would have to disagree. Look this guy is a disaster in the making. Should that occur he & the dems will pay the price 2012. Either way its in Hillary's best interest for McCain to win.
Posted by: Frank | July 7, 2008 05:49 PM
Indeed, it IS in all our "best" interests that McCain wins, but not for the reasons most think. As wrecked as our country is, it is not wrecked enough for the collective to remember the last 8 years as a complete disaster, and learn from that. McCain can help drive our Straight Talk Express bus the rest of the way over the cliff. Meanwhile, you and most of the commenters seem concerned primarily with what's good for Clinton or Obama and their big rollers, cast as the petulant egocentric brats they are. And please tone down the victim language about the left being gullible or being used again. That is their raison d'etre, apparently -- just ask Nader, who certainly helped make Bush 43 a bad reality, though without Nader's help many millions made Bush 43 Part 2 the belch after a greasy cheeseburger with onions. Now, if the left could just learn the larger consequences of being such a willing tool.
Posted by: Johnny | July 7, 2008 08:36 PM
This article took the words right out of my mouth.And you are right my hate for Obama has grow stronger because he basically beat her by moving to the left with movenon.org, the netroots were the ones that helped him win the caucus,hence win the nomination. Now he is moving away from these groups, taking every single position HRC had during the primary. And this is making so angry.
I am even more determine now to see him lose.
Posted by: Kiki | July 8, 2008 12:22 AM
Why is it that only the conservatives believe us that we aren't willing to vote for an inexperienced individual with terrifying connections who is clearly anti-Israel which could lead us into a war with Iran?
Both Clinton and McCain are *clearly* pro-Israel.
Posted by: PUMA | July 8, 2008 01:23 AM
"It seems to me that 9 Justices who view the Constitution as the basis for our laws is far more preferable to a Justice who looks anywhere in the world to justify his ridiculous view on what should be."
======================
Obviously I disagree, and if you think that Scalia doesn't play politics from the bench, and truly is hewing closely to the original intent of the Consitution, without any consideration of his own Conservative politics, I suggest that you read some of his decisions.
How "Constitutional" was the decision not to order the recount in 2000? How much of that decision was predicated on the Constitution (I would argue that the case should have been Returned to the FL Courts.)
Look, there is nothing wrong with being a partisan of a Conservative Court, but please stop repeating the "Legislate from the Bench" canard, all the justices play politics to one extent or another.
=================
"Why is it that only the conservatives believe us that we aren't willing to vote for an inexperienced individual with terrifying connections who is clearly anti-Israel which could lead us into a war with Iran?"
==============
"terrifying connections?" Nonsense. Are Warren Buffet, and Paul Volcker terrifying? Obama is a mainstream Politican period. And Obama hasn't co-opted Hillary's positions, Obama and Hillary's positions have always been closely matched, further they have ALWAYS voted the straight Progressive agenda in the Senate (except on the last Tort Reform Bill which Obama voted Yes on and Hillary voted NO.)
Obama will kiss Israel's arse, no worries about that alas. WHAT Israel has to do with our election I'll never know, but it seems that all US Politicans have to kow-tow to Israel (why don't we just make them the 51st State and be done with it.) Of course it is laughable, or prehaps just willfully ignorant, to suggest that Obama who prefers a "speak softly but carry a Big Stick" foreign Policy will spark a War with Iran, when it was Hillary with her well manicured finger on the "Obliterate Button," and John McCain who wants to "bomb, bomb, bomb Iran."
Posted by: radical_moderate | July 8, 2008 08:23 AM
I would have to disagree with Mr. Casey that Obama would be in the presidency for eight years. I have a sense that based on emotiona momentum that Obama will get a shot but after four years of disasterous socialist policies, we will fire him. Then hopfully, just as with Jimmy Carter, that will usher in eight years of Reagan-like conservatism. That is the only comfort I can get out of imagining Obama getting elected.
Posted by: Wes Baucke | July 8, 2008 09:58 AM
Barack Obama: Is not a leader and he just says what ever people want to hear at the moment.Then later says somthing else like the War in Iraq.He sounds like he has a duel personality you know they do have medication for that dont you?????
Posted by: Robert Davis | July 8, 2008 10:11 AM
I'm a firm believer that things can always get worse and a vote for Obama will bring down the American people and the United States of America.
The Presidency is our highest office and I'm still in shock that Obama has made it this far. There is no place for affirmative action when it comes to the Presidency of the United States. If he were another candidate, he would have closed up shop a long time ago, just like John Edwards had to do.
Here is a man who hasn't much experience as a Senator. Although he has been in the State Senate, I cannot compare that position to that of Congress. He has experience in real estate development and IL is still faced with the broken down buildings so he should take that off his resume.
Actually, I'd like to know what is on his resume.
There are millions of HRC voters who will be voting for McCain, I am one of them. Everyone is comparing McCain to Bush, but that shouldn't be the issue.
Not voting for McCain is like voting for Obama just because he is a democrat.
Obama and the DNC have made the democratic party look like a three ring circus. Now they are holding a raffle!?!? I wish it were a joke but it isn't. Where is their dignity? Obama lost my vote a long time ago with some of his foreign policy issues. Have people seen the You Tube video - 52 Seconds!!!
The DNC should be ashamed. All the delegates and superdelegates should start acting like this is a Presidential Election and not an election for a city counselor. Obama can't even be a responsible enough person in his position as a Senator of Illinois (130 times just saying present and people wonder about his flip-flops) so why would anyone think that he is in anyway qualified to be President.
Sure he meets the basic qualifications (well, maybe...forged birth record) but then most citizens over 35 years of age do. There are always informal requirements which American people expect to hear and see in a candidate. Obama hasn't got any credible informal requirements.
The fact is, Obama doesn't have anything at all!!! I see him as a con man. A salesman who is trying to sell me his product, but in this case, Obama is the product and I am not buying him or anything he says.
It's Simple...I'll take a war veteran with far more experience in Congress than a man who really doesn't know what to say without a teleprompter!!!
Posted by: Doris T. | July 8, 2008 11:26 AM
Doris, are you saying that McCain doesn't use a teleprompter when giving a long speech?
Are you saying that because Hillary has a single term in the Senate over Obama that his over decade long experience as an elected offical is negated?
He said present 130 times out of more than 4,000 votes for god's sake. He and Hillary have voted the same in all but 2 votes in the Senate. His current proposals are almost Identical to Clinton's and she has endorsed him.
I see no rational argument here, but I do see someone throwing a tantrum because they didn't get their way.
Vote for McCain, but vote for him based on his positions and not as a "protest" vote against Obama, who hasn't really flip-flopped on most issues, if you look carefully at his previous statements.
My concern for getting afordable health insurance for uninsured Americans, and getting out of Iraq lean me toward Obama, although I like McCain, I just don't like his unfunded economic proposals and military agression.
Posted by: radical_moderate | July 8, 2008 04:01 PM