Past June Polls Do not Predict Winner

Rick Moran
Only once in the last 20 years has the candidate who has been ahead in June polls ended up winning the election according to the TimesOnline:

As hard as it may be to believe, Michael Dukakis  was leading the first George Bush by an average of 8.2 percent in June of 1988. Bush went on to win the general election by 7.8 points.

Mr Bush led the relatively unknown Bill Clinton by 4.9 percent In June of '92, but managed to lose in November by 5.6 percent.

June 1996 polls showed the incumbent President Clinton leading by a whopping 17 points, but even Bob Dole managed to close the gap to a more respectable 8.5 percent.

2000 was different only in that George W. Bush led by 4.7 percent in June, won the election, but lost the popular vote to Al Gore by 0.5 percent.

And finally, John Kerry led in the June 2004 polls by an average of 0.9 percent, but lost the popular vote, and the election, to the incumbent Bush by 2.4 points.   


According to RealClearPolitics.com, Obama holds about a 5 1/2 point lead on McCain when you average out all the polls. I wonder what that number will be on election day? Some polls (clearly oversampling Democrats) have Obama way up. But the day to day tracking polls of Rasmussen and Gallop have the race much closer.

I doubt that will change much as we move into the summer.




Only once in the last 20 years has the candidate who has been ahead in June polls ended up winning the election according to the TimesOnline:

As hard as it may be to believe, Michael Dukakis  was leading the first George Bush by an average of 8.2 percent in June of 1988. Bush went on to win the general election by 7.8 points.

Mr Bush led the relatively unknown Bill Clinton by 4.9 percent In June of '92, but managed to lose in November by 5.6 percent.

June 1996 polls showed the incumbent President Clinton leading by a whopping 17 points, but even Bob Dole managed to close the gap to a more respectable 8.5 percent.

2000 was different only in that George W. Bush led by 4.7 percent in June, won the election, but lost the popular vote to Al Gore by 0.5 percent.

And finally, John Kerry led in the June 2004 polls by an average of 0.9 percent, but lost the popular vote, and the election, to the incumbent Bush by 2.4 points.   


According to RealClearPolitics.com, Obama holds about a 5 1/2 point lead on McCain when you average out all the polls. I wonder what that number will be on election day? Some polls (clearly oversampling Democrats) have Obama way up. But the day to day tracking polls of Rasmussen and Gallop have the race much closer.

I doubt that will change much as we move into the summer.