FARC on its last legs?

Rick Moran
That seems to be the consensus among military analysts in the aftermath of the death of FARC Commander and his replacement by a Communist true believer. The move won't sit well with those FARC commanders who have grown used to making a lot of money from the drug trade. And other factors will work to split the terrorist rebels into several groups:

From StrategyPage.com:

The fallout from the capture of a senior FARC leaders laptop last March continues. Police are investigating leftist politicians for connections to FARC. There is also a long list of foreign "humanitarian" organizations and individuals that apparently were on very friendly terms with FARC. The foreigners, including Americans, deny it, but then they always have

With death of the FARC leader, and his replacement by a communist true-believer, it is believed that FARC will splinter. The pro-drug FARC commanders are not going to give up their drug money. Government counter-terror operations have destroyed the "old FARC" during the last six years. FARC leaders who have surrendered have made it clear that they believe FARC is splitting into independent factions, and that much of the organization has simply been destroyed by police and army activity. A lot of the damage has to do with loss of income in the last six years. Lucrative kidnappings are down 83 percent, and terrorist attacks fell by 76 percent in the that period.  Army and police pressure have reduced FARC strength to less than half of what it was in 2002 (when it was about 15,000 gunmen.) Last year alone,  2,480 FARC members deserted or surrendered to the government. The revolution is over, even if some of the rebels have not got the message yet.

The army is seeking better ways to detect and clear landmines. FARC has been increasingly using land mines to protect its dwindling number of bases, and to terrorize civilian populations (into supporting the rebels, or at least not working with the government.) Long term, it will be up to the army to clear the thousands of landmines known to be in the ground in FARC infested territory. FARC doesn't keep very good records of where they plant their mines, which further complicates the clean-up process.


Thanks to some quiet but massive support by the United States, the Colombian government appears to be succeeding in fighting off the FARC guerillas.

But those same documents taken from the captured laptop also show that Hugo Chavez has a lot invested in FARC - over $100 million. Chavez also sees FARC as the vanguard of his Bolivarian Revolution and wants to export his brand of socialism to the rest of South America. It is doubtful that Chavez is going to allow FARC to disappear.

But there's not much he can do if the instrument is broken and can't be put back together again.


That seems to be the consensus among military analysts in the aftermath of the death of FARC Commander and his replacement by a Communist true believer. The move won't sit well with those FARC commanders who have grown used to making a lot of money from the drug trade. And other factors will work to split the terrorist rebels into several groups:

From StrategyPage.com:

The fallout from the capture of a senior FARC leaders laptop last March continues. Police are investigating leftist politicians for connections to FARC. There is also a long list of foreign "humanitarian" organizations and individuals that apparently were on very friendly terms with FARC. The foreigners, including Americans, deny it, but then they always have

With death of the FARC leader, and his replacement by a communist true-believer, it is believed that FARC will splinter. The pro-drug FARC commanders are not going to give up their drug money. Government counter-terror operations have destroyed the "old FARC" during the last six years. FARC leaders who have surrendered have made it clear that they believe FARC is splitting into independent factions, and that much of the organization has simply been destroyed by police and army activity. A lot of the damage has to do with loss of income in the last six years. Lucrative kidnappings are down 83 percent, and terrorist attacks fell by 76 percent in the that period.  Army and police pressure have reduced FARC strength to less than half of what it was in 2002 (when it was about 15,000 gunmen.) Last year alone,  2,480 FARC members deserted or surrendered to the government. The revolution is over, even if some of the rebels have not got the message yet.

The army is seeking better ways to detect and clear landmines. FARC has been increasingly using land mines to protect its dwindling number of bases, and to terrorize civilian populations (into supporting the rebels, or at least not working with the government.) Long term, it will be up to the army to clear the thousands of landmines known to be in the ground in FARC infested territory. FARC doesn't keep very good records of where they plant their mines, which further complicates the clean-up process.


Thanks to some quiet but massive support by the United States, the Colombian government appears to be succeeding in fighting off the FARC guerillas.

But those same documents taken from the captured laptop also show that Hugo Chavez has a lot invested in FARC - over $100 million. Chavez also sees FARC as the vanguard of his Bolivarian Revolution and wants to export his brand of socialism to the rest of South America. It is doubtful that Chavez is going to allow FARC to disappear.

But there's not much he can do if the instrument is broken and can't be put back together again.