CNN Poll - McCain, Obama in dead heat

Rick Moran
The Democrats should be far ahead, of course. McCain should be in the low 30's considering everything that is going on.

But this CNN poll reveals something deeper than the mere fact that the candidates are virtually tied. It shows a profound unease with Obama that is probably only going to increase as the campaign moves along:

The general election season opens with a neck-and-neck race between Barack Obama and John McCain, with more than one in five voters admitting that they might change their minds between now and November.

In the CNN/Opinion Research Corporation poll conducted entirely after Obama became the presumptive Democratic nominee, he leads his Republican counterpart 49 to 46 percent among registered voters - a statistical tie, given the question's 3 point margin of error.

The poll is the first conducted entirely after Obama became the presumptive Democratic nominee.

McCain and Obama aren't alone: independent candidate Ralph Nader and Republican-turned-Libertarian Bob Barr are both vying with the two major-party candidates for independent voters.

But at this point, it looks unlikely either will play a spoiler role: the margin between Obama and McCain is virtually unchanged, with the Illinois senator leading 47 to 43 percent. Nader pulls in 6 percent, and Barr 2.

That 6% for Nader is the tipoff. It may turn out that those most uncomfortable with Obama may be Democrats themselves. Women especially are unhappy with Obama and, of course, the white working class voter has been a problem for Obama since March when his connection to Jerremiah Wright became an issue.

Beyond that, Obama continues to show high negatives on trustworthiness and honesty. What those numbers will be like by election day will probably mean the difference between victory and defeat.

With all the problems with the Republican brand, Obama seems the least able to take advantage. One more sign that Hillary Clinton would probably have been a better general election candidate.
The Democrats should be far ahead, of course. McCain should be in the low 30's considering everything that is going on.

But this CNN poll reveals something deeper than the mere fact that the candidates are virtually tied. It shows a profound unease with Obama that is probably only going to increase as the campaign moves along:

The general election season opens with a neck-and-neck race between Barack Obama and John McCain, with more than one in five voters admitting that they might change their minds between now and November.

In the CNN/Opinion Research Corporation poll conducted entirely after Obama became the presumptive Democratic nominee, he leads his Republican counterpart 49 to 46 percent among registered voters - a statistical tie, given the question's 3 point margin of error.

The poll is the first conducted entirely after Obama became the presumptive Democratic nominee.

McCain and Obama aren't alone: independent candidate Ralph Nader and Republican-turned-Libertarian Bob Barr are both vying with the two major-party candidates for independent voters.

But at this point, it looks unlikely either will play a spoiler role: the margin between Obama and McCain is virtually unchanged, with the Illinois senator leading 47 to 43 percent. Nader pulls in 6 percent, and Barr 2.

That 6% for Nader is the tipoff. It may turn out that those most uncomfortable with Obama may be Democrats themselves. Women especially are unhappy with Obama and, of course, the white working class voter has been a problem for Obama since March when his connection to Jerremiah Wright became an issue.

Beyond that, Obama continues to show high negatives on trustworthiness and honesty. What those numbers will be like by election day will probably mean the difference between victory and defeat.

With all the problems with the Republican brand, Obama seems the least able to take advantage. One more sign that Hillary Clinton would probably have been a better general election candidate.